RSG
Republic Services, Inc.$231.98
Unclear
Target $220.80
Report: Mar 08, 2026Industrials • Waste Management • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$231.98-4.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$169.85
(27% below current)
Fair Value
$220.80
(5% below current)
Stop Loss
$126.58
(45% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$258.75
52 Week Low$201.42
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.41M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin42.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin30.7%
LTM EBIT Margin19.1%
LTM Operating Margin20.0%
LTM ROA6.4%
LTM ROE18.0%
LTM ROIC12.3%
LTM ROCE10.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$67.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$81.1B
Shares Outstanding309.80M
Total Debt (MM)$13.58B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$76.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$13.51B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR7.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR13.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$239.82
LTM EV/Revenue4.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.7x
LTM EV/EBIT25.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.9x
LTM P/E31.6x
LTM EV/FCF33.5x
LTM P/FCF27.9x
LTM P/TB4.0x
LTM P/B5.7x
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout Ratio35.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $231.98 versus fair value $220.8 (-4.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Ramp of the Indianapolis Polymer Center and Blue Polymers Joint Venture. Bear case centers on PFAS Regulatory and Litigation Risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Republic's pricing power is durable, with core price increases of 5.9% consistently outpacing cost inflation. Furthermore, the 'hidden value' in the RNG and polymer center pipeline is expected to contribute $40 million in incremental EBITDA in 2026, representing a high-margin growth lever that is not yet fully reflected in the 16.7x EV/EBITDA multiple.
Bear Case
The company's capital structure is increasingly fragile, with Debt/Equity rising to 113.5% and a negative tangible book value of $17.33 per share. Additionally, escalating PFAS litigation risks following the EPA's hazardous substance designation could impose significant long-term remediation costs on the company's 207 landfills.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Ramp of the Indianapolis Polymer Center and Blue Polymers Joint Venture. This catalyst addresses market concerns regarding the growth ceilin...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Monetization of the RNG Pipeline. The successful commissioning of 4 additional RNG projects in 2026 will validate the 'hidden value' thesis...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Republic Services is relevant for analysis now as it enters a 'show-me' phase for its sustainability investments while simultaneously naviga...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
PFAS Regulatory and Litigation Risk. The EPA's designation of PFAS as hazardous substances could lead to significant increases in landfill l...
Concern: Medium
Margin Compression from Input Cost Volatility. Rising fuel prices and declining recycled commodity prices can erode the benefits of pricing...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is Strong. The presence of Cascade Investment as a 35.6% shareholder ensures deep alignment with long-term value cre...
Recent Activity
2025-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.82%Republic Services reports Q2 2025 results with 4.6% revenue growth and $1.77 adjusted EPS
2024-07-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.17%Republic Services reports Q2 2024 results with 8.6% revenue growth and $1.61 adjusted EPS
2023-04-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.03%Republic Services reports Q1 2023 results with 21% revenue growth and $1.24 adjusted EPS
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$152
Bear
$210
Base
$250
Bull
$232