SBAC
SBA Communications Corporation$195.69
Sell
Target $162.79
Report: Mar 13, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Specialty • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$195.69-16.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$162.79
(17% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$245.16
52 Week Low$162.41
Avg. 3 Month Volume922K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin75.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin71.4%
LTM EBIT Margin61.0%
LTM Operating Margin47.7%
LTM ROA9.6%
LTM ROE-21.4%
LTM ROIC8.1%
LTM ROCE18.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$18.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$33.1B
Shares Outstanding106.30M
Total Debt (MM)$15.32B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$432.37M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$14.89B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA7.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth5.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.2%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR7.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR32.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$224.80
LTM EV/Revenue11.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit15.6x
LTM EV/EBIT19.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.5x
LTM P/E17.3x
LTM EV/FCF23.7x
LTM P/FCF13.0x
LTM P/TB2.1x
LTM P/B-3.8x
Dividend Yield2.6%
Payout Ratio45.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $195.69 versus fair value $162.79 (-16.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of DISH Churn and Litigation Outcome If the $56M revenue dispute with DISH results in a permanent loss of rental income, it will validate our bear case regarding deteriorating cash flow quality. Bear case centers on High Leverage and Interest Rate Sensitivity With a debt-to-assets ratio of 132.3% and $15.3B in total debt, any sustained increase in interest rates or a deterioration in cash flow could lead to a breach of the 6.5x net debt to EBITDA co... Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Successful lease-up of the 7,110 Millicom towers exceeding 90% utilization; 5G densification driving higher-than-expected colocation demand; potential for interest rate declines to reduce the cost of the 132.3% debt-to-asset leverage.
Bear Case
Permanent loss of $56M in annual revenue from DISH/Sprint churn; continued margin compression as integration costs for Millicom outweigh leasing gains; inability to sustain debt-funded buybacks if cash conversion remains at the current 123% level.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of DISH Churn and Litigation Outcome If the $56M revenue dispute with DISH results in a permanent loss of rental income, it will...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Millicom Integration Margin Impact Quarterly results showing continued gross margin compression below 75% would signal that the Millicom acq...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
SBAC is at a critical juncture as it integrates its largest acquisition in years while simultaneously facing a major legal battle with a top...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
High Leverage and Interest Rate Sensitivity With a debt-to-assets ratio of 132.3% and $15.3B in total debt, any sustained increase in intere...
Concern: Low
Technological Obsolescence from Satellite Broadband Long-term disruption from satellite technologies could reduce the demand for traditional...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is a 'Maintenance' posture. The governance outcome tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: The company continues to use debt t...
Recent Activity
2025-04-29SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+6.82%JPMorgan Chase & Co. reports 5.5% beneficial ownership of SBA Communications Class A shares
2024-07-11SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.52%SBA Communications announces CFO succession plan
2024-04-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.81%SBA Communications reports Q1 2024 results with net income of $154.5M and declares $0.98 quarterly dividend
2023-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.38%SBA Communications reports Q1 2023 results and increases full-year outlook
2023-02-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.06%SBA Communications reports Q4 2022 results and provides 2023 outlook
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$60
Bear
$163
Base
$410
Bull
$196