SCHW
The Charles Schwab Corporation$95.23
Hold
Target $109.06
Report: Mar 08, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Capital Markets • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$95.23+14.5%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$83.89
(12% below current)
Fair Value
$109.06
(15% above current)
Stop Loss
$65.88
(31% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$107.50
52 Week Low$65.88
Avg. 3 Month Volume10.36M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin53.6%
LTM EBIT Margin47.9%
LTM Operating Margin47.9%
LTM ROA1.8%
LTM ROE17.0%
LTM ROIC2.8%
LTM ROCE2.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$164.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$106.7B
Shares Outstanding1.77B
Total Debt (MM)$30.96B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$88.96B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-58.00B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-4.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth22.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR6.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR10.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$122.78
LTM EV/Revenue4.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.5x
LTM EV/EBIT9.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.3x
LTM P/E19.6x
LTM EV/FCF12.2x
LTM P/FCF18.8x
LTM P/TB0.3x
LTM P/B3.3x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio24.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $95.23 versus fair value $109.06 (14.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in H1 2026. Bear case centers on Persistent cash sorting into higher-yield alternatives. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Record asset gathering with core net new assets up 44% YoY and a $58 billion net cash position providing a massive capital return floor. Margin expansion to 47.9% demonstrates superior operating leverage as Ameritrade integration costs dissipate.
Bear Case
Persistent cash sorting into higher-yield money market funds continues to compress net interest margins. Heavy insider selling of $278.5 million and activist pressure from Bluebell Capital suggest internal and external concerns regarding governance and capital risk.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in H1 2026. This addresses market concerns regarding Schwab's relevance to younger investors and...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Completion of high-cost FHLB debt paydown. Paying down the remaining $14.8 billion in supplemental borrowings will directly expand net inter...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Schwab is relevant for analysis now due to the recent completion of the TD Ameritrade integration and the January 2025 CEO transition, which...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Persistent cash sorting into higher-yield alternatives. This mechanism impairs the thesis by compressing net interest margins, which are a p...
Concern: High
Regulatory scrutiny on cash sweep programs. Potential changes to fiduciary requirements for uninvested cash could permanently impair the pro...
Concern: Medium
The governance outlook is defined by a three-way outcome tree: 1. Status Quo: Wurster's growth plan executes, and the stock re-rates as NIM...
Recent Activity
2025-04-04Market Movement
-7.76%Market/Sector Move -7.76%
2024-10-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.10%Charles Schwab reports Q3 2024 results with record client assets and continued momentum
2024-07-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.18%Charles Schwab reports Q2 2024 financial results with record client assets and strong growth
2023-07-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+12.57%Charles Schwab reports Q2 2023 results with declining revenues but strong client momentum
2023-03-15Analyst Target
+5.06%Firm: Credit Suisse Analyst: Bill Katz Price Target: $67.50 Price When Posted: $56.68 Implied Upside: +19.1%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$105
Bear
$126
Base
$140
Bull
$95