SJM
The J. M. Smucker Company$115.95
Unclear
Target $66.78
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Defensive • Packaged Foods • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$115.95-42.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$51.37
(56% below current)
Fair Value
$66.78
(42% below current)
Stop Loss
$93.00
(20% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$120.76
52 Week Low$93.30
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.05M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin33.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin-1.7%
LTM EBIT Margin-7.8%
LTM Operating Margin-7.7%
LTM ROA-7.3%
LTM ROE-21.6%
LTM ROIC-6.6%
LTM ROCE-4.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$17.7B
Shares Outstanding106.65M
Total Debt (MM)$7.45B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$52.80M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.40B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-48.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth1.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$111.25
LTM EV/Revenue2.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.9x
LTM EV/EBIT-25.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA-115.1x
LTM P/E-8.2x
LTM EV/FCF18.0x
LTM P/FCF10.4x
LTM P/TB1.9x
LTM P/B2.0x
Dividend Yield4.5%
Payout Ratio-37.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $115.95 versus fair value $66.78 (-42.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Successful debt reduction to 3x leverage target. Bear case centers on Existential liquidity and solvency risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The Uncrustables brand represents an undervalued mega-brand capable of reaching $1 billion in sales by FY2026, providing a high-margin growth engine. Additionally, a $75 million tariff tailwind in FY2027 and $30 million in savings from the Indianapolis plant closure could accelerate margin recovery.
Bear Case
High leverage of 142.4% debt-to-equity and negative interest coverage of -1.81x expose the company to existential insolvency risk if the Sweet Baked Snacks turnaround fails. Furthermore, the lack of a tangible asset floor (NLV of $0.00) means equity holders have no protection in a restructuring scenario.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Successful debt reduction to 3x leverage target. This addresses the primary market concern regarding solvency and allows for a re-rating tow...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Stabilization of the Sweet Baked Snacks segment. Halting the double-digit volume declines in this segment is essential to proving the Hostes...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
The company is at a critical juncture following the February 2026 board refresh and leadership reorganization, making the next 12 months a d...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential liquidity and solvency risk. The company's negative interest coverage of -1.81x and $7.45 billion debt load create a 'race again...
Concern: Medium
The bear case reflects a liquidity crisis where Sweet Baked Snacks execution fails, leading to a covenant breach and a failed turnaround. In...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree for SJM is currently in a 'Compromise' phase. 1. Status Quo: Management continues the $500 million annual debt p...
Recent Activity
2026-02-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.82%J.M. Smucker reports Q3 FY2026 results with 7% net sales growth
2025-06-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-15.59%J.M. Smucker reports Q4 FY2025 results with 3% net sales decline and $6.85 net loss per share.
2025-03-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.28%J.M. Smucker enters $650M term loan and $2B revolving credit facility
2024-11-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.69%J.M. Smucker reports Q2 FY2025 results with 17% net sales growth driven by Hostess acquisition.
2022-06-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.72%J.M. Smucker reports Q4 FY2022 results with 6% net sales growth and 18% EPS increase, providing FY2023 guidance.
Valuation Table
4.5/10Directional
Scenario Range
$11
Bear
$57
Base
$86
Bull
$116