SMCI
Super Micro Computer, Inc.$32.39
Buy
Target $64.11
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Computer Hardware • Early-Stage HypergrowthSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$32.39+97.9%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$32.39
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$64.11
(98% above current)
Stop Loss
$25.91
(20% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$62.36
52 Week Low$19.48
Avg. 3 Month Volume37.11M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin8.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin4.3%
LTM EBIT Margin4.0%
LTM Operating Margin3.7%
LTM ROA5.2%
LTM ROE13.3%
LTM ROIC9.7%
LTM ROCE10.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$13.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$14.4B
Shares Outstanding598.00M
Total Debt (MM)$4.88B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$4.09B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$786.75M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth83.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR75.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR46.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR38.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$47.13
LTM EV/Revenue0.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.4x
LTM EV/EBIT12.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.1x
LTM P/E15.6x
LTM EV/FCF32.8x
LTM P/FCF31.0x
LTM P/TB0.5x
LTM P/B2.0x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $32.39 versus fair value $64.11 (97.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on DCBBS reaching 30% of total revenue mix. Bear case centers on Customer Concentration Risk: A single hyperscale customer represents 63% of net sales. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Starter sizing and Strategic horizon.
Bull Case
SMCI maintains a first-to-market advantage in AI infrastructure with a 70-80% market share in liquid cooling; management's guidance for at least $40 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue suggests continued hypergrowth; the rollout of DCBBS provides a credible path to gross margins above 15%.
Bear Case
Extreme customer concentration exists with one hyperscaler representing 63% of sales; material weaknesses in internal controls and an active DOJ probe create significant regulatory risk; gross margins have compressed to 8.0% TTM, indicating intense pricing pressure from larger competitors.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
DCBBS reaching 30% of total revenue mix. This would validate management's claim that modular solutions carry >20% margins and offset the cur...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: High
Resolution of the DOJ investigation and SEC accounting probe. A settlement or 'no-action' letter would remove the primary overhang preventin...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
SMCI is relevant at this moment because it recently reported record $12.68 billion quarterly revenue while trading at a 68% discount to peer...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Customer Concentration Risk: A single hyperscale customer represents 63% of net sales. A reduction in spend or a shift to Dell/HPE would lea...
Concern: High
Internal Control Failure: The auditor identified material weaknesses in financial reporting, which could lead to future restatements or anot...
Concern: Medium
The governance outlook follows a three-path tree: 1. Status Quo: Charles Liang maintains control and executes the DCBBS ramp, leading to a s...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+13.78%Supermicro reports Q2 FY2026 results with $12.7B revenue, $401M net income, and $4.1B cash
2026-01-13Analyst Target
-5.05%Firm: Goldman Sachs Price Target: $26.00 Price When Posted: $30.12 Implied Downside: -13.7%
2025-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.33%Supermicro reports Q1 FY2026 results with $5.0B revenue, $168M net income, and $4.2B cash
2025-10-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.72%Super Micro Computer provides Q1 FY2026 business update
2025-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-18.29%Supermicro reports Q4 FY2025 results with $5.8B revenue, $195M net income, and $5.2B cash
Valuation Table
5.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$80
Bear
$143
Base
$212
Bull
$32