SNA
Snap-on Incorporated$384.32
Unclear
Target $413.62
Report: Mar 08, 2026Industrials • Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$384.32+7.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$318.17
(17% below current)
Fair Value
$413.62
(8% above current)
Stop Loss
$289.81
(25% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$390.13
52 Week Low$289.81
Avg. 3 Month Volume373K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin51.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin28.3%
LTM EBIT Margin26.4%
LTM Operating Margin25.8%
LTM ROA12.3%
LTM ROE17.7%
LTM ROIC24.0%
LTM ROCE18.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$18.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$18.5B
Shares Outstanding51.80M
Total Debt (MM)$1.26B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.62B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-360.10M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth0.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR3.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR4.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$396.33
LTM EV/Revenue3.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.9x
LTM EV/EBIT13.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.7x
LTM P/E18.5x
LTM EV/FCF18.0x
LTM P/FCF18.4x
LTM P/TB2.7x
LTM P/B3.2x
Dividend Yield2.4%
Payout Ratio45.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $384.32 versus fair value $413.62 (7.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Tools Group Organic Sales Reversal: A shift from flat/negative organic growth to +2-3% growth would validate the 'quick-payback' pivot and restore market confidence in the core segment. Bear case centers on Franchise Model Impairment: The loss of independent contractor status for dealers would force Snap-on to pay overtime and benefits, permanently increasing the SG&A floor (currently 26.0% of revenue). Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Snap-on's 17.9% ROIC and $1.0B in FCF provide a massive buffer for shareholder returns; the aging car park (8.2 years) ensures a long-term tailwind for repair demand.
Bear Case
Stagnant organic growth (0.9%) suggests the premium tool market is saturated; dealer misclassification lawsuits could force a costly restructuring of the distribution model.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Tools Group Organic Sales Reversal: A shift from flat/negative organic growth to +2-3% growth would validate the 'quick-payback' pivot and r...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Resolution of California Dealer Litigation: A favorable ruling or manageable settlement would remove the primary structural 'tail risk' curr...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Snap-on is relevant now because it is trading near its 52-week high ($390.13) despite stagnant organic growth and heavy insider selling, cre...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Franchise Model Impairment: The loss of independent contractor status for dealers would force Snap-on to pay overtime and benefits, permanen...
Concern: Low
Moat Erosion via 'Right to Repair': Legislation could force Snap-on to open its proprietary diagnostic data to third parties, reducing the s...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is reliable but currently in a 'harvest' phase. The governance outcome tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Continued 7-10% TSR through...
Recent Activity
2025-07-17SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.92%Snap-on reports Q2 2025 results with EPS of $4.72, flat YoY
2025-04-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.00%Snap-on reports Q1 2025 results with sales of $1,141.1 million, down 3.5% from Q1 2024.
2024-10-17SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.97%Snap-on reports Q3 2024 results with sales of $1,147.0 million, down 1.1% from Q3 2023.
2024-04-18SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.67%Snap-on reports Q1 2024 results with sales of $1,182.3 million, consistent with last year.
2024-02-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.67%Snap-on reports Q4 2023 results with EPS of $4.75, up 7.5% YoY
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$326
Bear
$414
Base
$488
Bull
$384