SPG
Simon Property Group, Inc.$201.03
Sell
Target $166.44
Report: Mar 13, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Retail • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$201.03-17.2%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$166.44
(17% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$205.12
52 Week Low$136.34
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.70M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin81.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin113.0%
LTM EBIT Margin88.6%
LTM Operating Margin49.9%
LTM ROA13.2%
LTM ROE146.6%
LTM ROIC9.3%
LTM ROCE16.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$60.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$89.0B
Shares Outstanding324.95M
Total Debt (MM)$29.19B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$823.15M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$28.36B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth6.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR6.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR18.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR29.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$197.00
LTM EV/Revenue14.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit17.1x
LTM EV/EBIT15.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.4x
LTM P/E13.1x
LTM EV/FCF27.8x
LTM P/FCF18.9x
LTM P/TB1.5x
LTM P/B11.6x
Dividend Yield4.6%
Payout Ratio60.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $201.03 versus fair value $166.44 (-17.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Interest Expense Realization Management has guided for $0.25 to $0.30 per share in higher net interest expense in 2026. Bear case centers on Recessionary Vacancy Spike A macro downturn could lead to retailer bankruptcies, causing occupancy to fall below the 95% 'critical mass' level and triggering co-tenancy clauses that further reduce rents. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Class A mall dominance allows for continued rent growth (up 4.7% in 2025) and high occupancy (96.4%); the $4 billion redevelopment pipeline targets high-yield (8-10%) mixed-use integrations.
Bear Case
ROIC of 7.7% is structurally below the 9.8% cost of capital; rising interest expenses of $974.8 million will erode FFO; net income is artificially inflated by a $2.9 billion non-cash gain.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Interest Expense Realization Management has guided for $0.25 to $0.30 per share in higher net interest expense in 2026. As this drag hits qu...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Margin Compression Confirmation Continued reporting of operating margins below the 50% threshold will invalidate the 'pricing power' narrati...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Simon is relevant for analysis now because it is trading near its 52-week high of $205.12 just as it enters a fiscal year with known interes...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Recessionary Vacancy Spike A macro downturn could lead to retailer bankruptcies, causing occupancy to fall below the 95% 'critical mass' lev...
Concern: High
Interest Rate Volatility With $29.2 billion in debt and 20.6% maturing within one year, Simon is highly exposed to refinancing risk if rates...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate but carries significant key-person risk and succession concerns. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo...
Recent Activity
2025-05-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.16%Simon Property Group reported Q1 2025 results with FFO of $2.95 per share and reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance of $12.40-$12.65 per share.
2024-08-06SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.06%Simon Property Group reported Q2 2024 results with FFO of $2.90 per share and increased full-year 2024 guidance.
2021-11-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.45%Simon Property Group reports Q3 2021 results with increased guidance and dividend raise
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$16
Bear
$94
Base
$139
Bull
$201