SPGI
S&P Global Inc.$428.96
Unclear
Target $428.00
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$428.96-0.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$329.23
(23% below current)
Fair Value
$428.00
(0% below current)
Stop Loss
$321.15
(25% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$579.05
52 Week Low$381.61
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.57M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin70.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin47.9%
LTM EBIT Margin40.2%
LTM Operating Margin40.3%
LTM ROA7.4%
LTM ROE13.6%
LTM ROIC46.9%
LTM ROCE11.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$127.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$138.9B
Shares Outstanding301.80M
Total Debt (MM)$13.58B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.75B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$11.84B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR11.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$548.11
LTM EV/Revenue9.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit12.9x
LTM EV/EBIT22.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.9x
LTM P/E28.4x
LTM EV/FCF25.5x
LTM P/FCF23.3x
LTM P/TB15.0x
LTM P/B4.1x
Dividend Yield0.9%
Payout Ratio26.2%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $428.96 versus fair value $428.0 (-0.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Mobility spin-off completion mid-2026 with debt offering Q2, isolating 35.4% margin business (81% recurring) to refocus on core Ratings/Indices and unlock $10-12 billion standalone value. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from low-cost data competitors and AI commoditizing benchmarks, impairing pricing power and compressing ROIC from 46.9%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Ratings non-transaction fees up 11% from surveillance pricing power; Indices asset-linked fees +13% on AUM growth; AI add-ons like iLEVEL automation adopted by 20% of customers within six months, driving 1-2% revenue uplift.
Bear Case
Market Intelligence volume fluctuates with capital markets (50 bps Q4 headwind); operating margins trail peer median by 10.2 points to 50.5%; incremental ROIC -7,503 bps signals value-destructive reinvestment.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Mobility spin-off completion mid-2026 with debt offering Q2, isolating 35.4% margin business (81% recurring) to refocus on core Ratings/Indi...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
AI add-on acceleration with 20% iLEVEL adoption rate sustained, plus Enterprise Data Office cutting expenses >20% by 2027, driving 1-2pp rev...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
SPGI trades at 23.5x P/FCF (17% below 5Y average 32.7x) amid bearish technicals below 200-day SMA, making moat-reinforcing catalysts timely...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion from low-cost data competitors and AI commoditizing benchmarks, impairing pricing power and compressing ROIC from 46.9%.
Concern: Medium
Market Intelligence volume cyclicality tied to capital issuance, dragging revenue if activity softens post-2025 highs.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong with 89% independent board including ex-CEOs Esculier (WABCO $7 billion exit) and Green (Accenture), overseeing 85%+ F...
Recent Activity
2026-02-10SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.71%S&P Global reports Q4 and full-year 2025 results with strong revenue and earnings growth
2026-02-03Press Release
-11.27%S&P Global Introduces New Brand Identity For Mobility Division As "Mobility Global"
2024-02-08SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.02%S&P Global reports Q4 2023 and full-year 2023 financial results with strong revenue growth and increased EPS
2023-11-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.98%S&P Global reports Q3 2023 results with revenue growth and raised full-year guidance
2023-07-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.64%S&P Global reported Q2 2023 results with 4% revenue growth and 11% adjusted EPS increase
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$359
Bear
$451
Base
$523
Bull
$429