SWK
Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.$80.26
Buy
Target $139.97
Report: Mar 08, 2026Industrials • Manufacturing - Tools & Accessories • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$80.26+74.4%
Rec: BuyConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$80.26
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$139.97
(74% above current)
Stop Loss
$53.91
(33% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$93.37
52 Week Low$53.91
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.84M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin30.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin9.6%
LTM EBIT Margin6.2%
LTM Operating Margin6.5%
LTM ROA1.8%
LTM ROE4.5%
LTM ROIC8.6%
LTM ROCE5.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$11.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.6B
Shares Outstanding155.08M
Total Debt (MM)$5.86B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$280.10M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.58B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-1.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-3.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-7.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-28.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$89.33
LTM EV/Revenue1.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.6x
LTM EV/EBIT17.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.5x
LTM P/E27.4x
LTM EV/FCF24.1x
LTM P/FCF16.0x
LTM P/TB1.0x
LTM P/B1.2x
Dividend Yield4.6%
Payout Ratio124.1%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $80.26 versus fair value $139.97 (74.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Closing of the $1.8 billion CAM business sale to Howmet Aerospace. Bear case centers on Existential liquidity and solvency risk driven by a potential covenant breach. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
Successful execution of the $2.1 billion cost program drives gross margins toward the 35% target; CAM sale proceeds reduce net debt below $4 billion, triggering a credit rating upgrade.
Bear Case
Persistent DIY retail softness and $800 million in unmitigated tariff costs prevent margin recovery; high interest expense (currently $516 million TTM) consumes all operating cash flow.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Closing of the $1.8 billion CAM business sale to Howmet Aerospace. This is the primary survival-oriented catalyst that will fund immediate d...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Achievement of the 35% adjusted gross margin target. Validating the $2.1 billion cost savings program will prove the operational turnaround...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Stanley Black & Decker is relevant for analysis now because it is entering the final phase of its portfolio transformation, with the CAM sal...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Existential liquidity and solvency risk driven by a potential covenant breach. If EBITDA falls below $1.2 billion, the 3.5x interest coverag...
Concern: High
Tariff escalation and supply chain disruption. An unmitigated $800 million tariff drag would consume nearly all of the company's current ope...
Concern: Medium
The governance outcome tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo: Management hits the 35% margin target by 2026, driving the stock to $140. 2...
Recent Activity
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.20%Stanley Black & Decker reports 2Q 2025 results with tariff impacts and planning assumptions
2025-04-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-16.00%Tamer K. Abuaita transitions to Senior Advisor role as part of supply chain realignment
2024-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.77%Stanley Black & Decker reports 3Q 2024 results with improved gross margins and narrowed EPS guidance
2024-07-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.98%Stanley Black & Decker reports 2Q 2024 results with margin expansion and debt reduction
2024-07-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.54%Stanley Black & Decker appoints Deborah K. Wintner as Chief Human Resources Officer
Valuation Table
9.6/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$800
Bear
$175
Base
$227
Bull
$80