SYF
Synchrony Financial$65.46
Buy
Target $104.05
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Financial - Credit Services • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$65.46+59.0%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$65.46
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$104.05
(59% above current)
Stop Loss
$40.55
(38% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$88.77
52 Week Low$40.55
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.64M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin51.8%
LTM EBIT Margin46.5%
LTM Operating Margin47.4%
LTM ROA2.9%
LTM ROE20.6%
LTM ROIC3.9%
LTM ROCE3.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$23.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$23.9B
Shares Outstanding347.60M
Total Debt (MM)$15.18B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$14.97B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$209.00M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR5.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR15.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$90.08
LTM EV/Revenue2.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.4x
LTM EV/EBIT5.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA4.7x
LTM P/E6.8x
LTM EV/FCF2.4x
LTM P/FCF2.4x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B1.4x
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout Ratio9.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $65.46 versus fair value $104.05 (59.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Scaling of Walmart One Pay and Lowe's Commercial Transfer These programs are expected to drive mid-single-digit receivables growth in the back half of 2026, validating the growth narrative. Bear case centers on Regulatory Compression of Net Interest Margin The mechanism is the implementation of credit card late fee caps and the 10% APR cap proposal, which could directly reduce fee income and interest yields. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
The 'Cannibal' strategy is delivering massive EPS accretion, with diluted EPS growing 65% to $8.55 in 2024. The partner ecosystem is widening, with 75+ renewals in 2025 and a 10% sales lift observed when Pay Later is offered alongside revolving credit.
Bear Case
Regulatory headwinds, specifically the CFPB late-fee caps and a proposed 10% APR cap, could compress net interest margins. Modest revenue growth of 3.9% and rising SG&A intensity suggest a potential squeeze on operating margins.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Scaling of Walmart One Pay and Lowe's Commercial Transfer These programs are expected to drive mid-single-digit receivables growth in the ba...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Resolution of CFPB Late Fee Litigation A favorable legal outcome or successful mitigation through APR adjustments would remove the primary s...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Synchrony is highly relevant now as it trades at a significant discount to its $104.05 fair value while accelerating its share repurchase pr...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Regulatory Compression of Net Interest Margin The mechanism is the implementation of credit card late fee caps and the 10% APR cap proposal,...
Concern: Medium
Credit Quality Deterioration in a Recession A spike in unemployment would lead to higher net charge-offs, impairing the company's 21.1% ROE.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, anchored by a highly independent board with deep financial expertise. While low insider ownership and recent sales of...
Recent Activity
2026-01-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.82%Synchrony Financial reports Q4 2025 earnings with 3% decline and restructuring charge
2024-10-16SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.06%Synchrony Financial reports Q3 2024 earnings with 26% net income growth and strong capital returns
2024-08-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.35%Synchrony Financial priced $750 million of 5.935% Fixed-to-Floating Rate Senior Notes due 2030.
2024-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.04%Synchrony Financial reports Q1 2024 earnings with 115% growth and major strategic transactions
2023-11-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.10%Synchrony Financial agreed to sell Pets Best Insurance Services to Poodle Holdings.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$76
Bear
$124
Base
$149
Bull
$65