SYY
Sysco Corporation$84.29
Unclear
Target $80.91
Report: Mar 13, 2026Consumer Defensive • Food Distribution • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$84.29-4.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$62.24
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$80.91
(4% below current)
Stop Loss
$65.00
(23% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$91.85
52 Week Low$67.12
Avg. 3 Month Volume4.26M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin18.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin5.0%
LTM EBIT Margin3.6%
LTM Operating Margin3.7%
LTM ROA6.7%
LTM ROE88.7%
LTM ROIC12.5%
LTM ROCE18.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$34.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$47.9B
Shares Outstanding479.35M
Total Debt (MM)$14.97B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.22B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$13.75B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR9.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$91.88
LTM EV/Revenue0.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.1x
LTM EV/EBIT15.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.7x
LTM P/E19.0x
LTM EV/FCF25.2x
LTM P/FCF18.0x
LTM P/TB1.6x
LTM P/B15.0x
Dividend Yield3.0%
Payout Ratio57.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $84.29 versus fair value $80.91 (-4.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Local Case Volume Inflection Management has projected a return to at least 2.5% local case growth in the second half of FY2026. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Volume Stagnation A structural shift in consumer behavior away from food-away-from-home or a prolonged recession could keep local case volumes below the 2.5% inflection target, leading to persistent negative operating le... Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Successful adoption of AI360 CRM (90% daily usage) drives local case volume growth above 2.5%; International segment continues its ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit operating income growth.
Bear Case
Persistent input cost inflation outpaces pricing power, leading to further operating margin compression below 3.6%; High leverage (3.3x Net Debt/EBITDA) triggers a credit rating downgrade below Baa2.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Local Case Volume Inflection Management has projected a return to at least 2.5% local case growth in the second half of FY2026. Achieving th...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Cost Savings Realization The company is targeting 100M in cost savings through strategic sourcing and supply chain productivity. Realizing t...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Sysco is at a critical juncture as it laps the guidance reduction of FY2025 and attempts to prove that its digital transformation can drive...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-Longer Volume Stagnation A structural shift in consumer behavior away from food-away-from-home or a prolonged recession could keep...
Concern: Medium
Balance Sheet Fragility and Credit Downgrade With Debt/Equity at 792% and Net Debt/EBITDA at 3.3x, the company has limited capacity for furt...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate but lacks alignment. The governance outcome tree is currently stable, but the lack of insider purchases and 11 discr...
Recent Activity
2026-01-27SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.96%Sysco reports Q2 FY2026 results with 3.0% sales growth and raised EPS guidance
2025-01-28SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.96%Sysco reports Q2 FY2025 results with 4.5% sales growth and increased share repurchase plan
2024-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.52%Unavailable
2022-08-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.07%Unavailable
2022-05-10SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.13%Sysco reports Q3 FY2022 results with 42.9% sales growth and raises full-year EPS guidance to $3.16-$3.26
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade