T
AT&T Inc.$28.99
Unclear
Target $26.68
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Telecommunications Services • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$28.99-8.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$20.52
(29% below current)
Fair Value
$26.68
(8% below current)
Stop Loss
$13.43
(54% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$29.79
52 Week Low$22.95
Avg. 3 Month Volume45.08M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin59.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin42.4%
LTM EBIT Margin25.8%
LTM Operating Margin19.2%
LTM ROA5.3%
LTM ROE20.3%
LTM ROIC10.7%
LTM ROCE9.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$202.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$339.8B
Shares Outstanding7.00B
Total Debt (MM)$155.04B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$18.23B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$136.81B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-0.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR39.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$28.88
LTM EV/Revenue2.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.5x
LTM EV/EBIT10.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA6.4x
LTM P/E9.3x
LTM EV/FCF17.5x
LTM P/FCF10.4x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield3.8%
Payout Ratio36.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $28.99 versus fair value $26.68 (-8.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is partial. Debate: Bull case depends on Lumen Fiber Acquisition Close This transaction adds 4 million fiber locations and $900 million in annualized revenue, accelerating the convergence strategy in underpenetrated markets. Bear case centers on Lead-Sheathed Cable Liability Potential environmental remediation costs associated with abandoned lead cables could impair free cash flow and threaten the dividend. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Convergence drives 20% higher lifetime value per customer; $4 billion in additional cost savings by 2028; ROIC of 10.7% exceeds cost of capital.
Bear Case
Lead-sheathed cable liabilities could impair free cash flow for decades; $155 billion debt load limits flexibility in a high-rate environment; legacy copper decline dilutes fiber gains.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Lumen Fiber Acquisition Close This transaction adds 4 million fiber locations and $900 million in annualized revenue, accelerating the conve...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Achievement of 40 Million Fiber Passings Reaching this milestone validates the CapEx efficiency and provides the scale necessary for the 50%...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
AT&T is at a critical juncture as it launches new segment reporting in Q1 2026, which will finally unmask the high-growth 'advanced connecti...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lead-Sheathed Cable Liability Potential environmental remediation costs associated with abandoned lead cables could impair free cash flow an...
Concern: High
Interest Rate Sensitivity on $155B Debt High absolute debt levels increase refinancing costs, potentially compressing net margins if rates r...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by a board with deep regulatory and telecom expertise, including former FCC Chair William Kennard. Whil...
Recent Activity
2025-04-04Market Movement
-6.85%Market/Sector Move -6.85%
2024-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.22%AT&T reports second-quarter 2024 results showing continued strong 5G and fiber customer growth with improved financial performance.
2023-10-19SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.56%AT&T reports third-quarter 2023 financial results with continued subscriber growth and margin improvement.
2023-04-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.41%AT&T reports first-quarter 2023 financial results with revenue growth and subscriber gains.
2023-01-25SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.58%AT&T reports fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 financial results with significant asset impairments.
Valuation Table
7.4/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$20
Bear
$16
Base
$35
Bull
$29