TDY
Teledyne Technologies Incorporated$688.59
Unclear
Target $664.61
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Hardware, Equipment & Parts • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$688.59-3.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$511.24
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$664.61
(3% below current)
Stop Loss
$419.00
(39% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$693.38
52 Week Low$419.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume365K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin42.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin24.4%
LTM EBIT Margin18.9%
LTM Operating Margin18.8%
LTM ROA5.9%
LTM ROE8.7%
LTM ROIC23.2%
LTM ROCE8.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$28.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$30.1B
Shares Outstanding46.80M
Total Debt (MM)$2.48B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$352.40M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.12B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR3.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR4.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$664.80
LTM EV/Revenue4.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.5x
LTM EV/EBIT26.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA20.2x
LTM P/E31.3x
LTM EV/FCF28.1x
LTM P/FCF26.1x
LTM P/TB6.2x
LTM P/B2.7x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $688.59 versus fair value $664.61 (-3.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Acceleration of Unmanned Systems Revenue. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion via Geopolitical Trade Restrictions. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Record 2025 operating margins of 18.8% demonstrate pricing power in defense and marine segments; book-to-bill ratio of 1.08 suggests strong forward demand visibility; deleveraging to 1.4x net debt/EBITDA provides significant dry powder for future M&A.
Bear Case
Structural revenue growth deceleration from 15.9% (5Y average) to 7.9% (TTM) suggests the high-growth phase is maturing; negative incremental ROIC of -492.5% indicates recent capital deployment is not meeting the 9.3% cost of capital; heavy insider selling of $18.9 million signals management's own caution at current price levels.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Acceleration of Unmanned Systems Revenue. Management expects unmanned revenue to grow from $500 million in 2025 to $550 million in 2026, dri...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Successful Integration of Excelitas Assets. The $710 million acquisition adds complementary optical and electronic systems to the Aerospace...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Teledyne is relevant for analysis now due to its record 2025 performance and the recent leadership transition, which tests the durability of...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion via Geopolitical Trade Restrictions. The addition of Teledyne Brown Engineering to China's unreliable entity list bans import/e...
Concern: High
Value Destruction through Overpaid Acquisitions. The negative incremental ROIC of -492.5% suggests that recent capital deployment is not gen...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, characterized by a board of seasoned industrial leaders and a compensation structure where 100% of performance RSUs v...
Recent Activity
2026-01-21SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.81%Teledyne Technologies reported record fourth quarter and full year 2025 sales, earnings, and operating margin.
2025-10-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.23%Teledyne Technologies reports record Q3 2025 sales and raises full-year guidance
2025-04-09Market Movement
+7.61%Market/Sector Move +7.61%
2025-01-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.51%Teledyne Technologies reported record fourth quarter 2024 sales and non-GAAP earnings per share.
2024-10-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.00%Teledyne Technologies reports Q3 2024 record sales and raises full-year guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$475
Bear
$780
Bull
$689