TFC
Truist Financial Corporation$45.63
Unclear
Target $46.26
Report: Mar 13, 2026Financial Services • Banks - Regional • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$45.63+1.4%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$35.58
(22% below current)
Fair Value
$46.26
(1% above current)
Stop Loss
$33.56
(26% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional (12-24 Months)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$56.20
52 Week Low$33.56
Avg. 3 Month Volume9.86M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin39.0%
LTM EBIT Margin34.5%
LTM Operating Margin34.5%
LTM ROA0.9%
LTM ROE7.6%
LTM ROIC1.2%
LTM ROCE1.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$57.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$90.8B
Shares Outstanding1.27B
Total Debt (MM)$69.80B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$36.38B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$33.42B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth61.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-6.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-7.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-4.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$58.50
LTM EV/Revenue4.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.9x
LTM EV/EBIT14.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.6x
LTM P/E11.5x
LTM EV/FCF15.8x
LTM P/FCF10.0x
LTM P/TB0.1x
LTM P/B0.9x
Dividend Yield4.5%
Payout Ratio53.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $45.63 versus fair value $46.26 (1.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is insufficiently stable. Debate: Bull case depends on NIM expansion to three-teens exit 2026 via deposit betas to mid-40s and $11B asset repricing, validating inflection and addressing trough extrapolation concerns. Bear case centers on Prolonged downturn with CRE/NDFI (11% loans) driving NCOs >55 bps, eroding CET1 below 10% and forcing buyback halt. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
NIM expands to three-teens exit with deposit betas at mid-40s and $11B asset repricing; 3-4% loan growth in commercial (+8% Q4 YoY) and treasury fees (+13%); $4B 2026 buybacks accelerate to 15% ROTCE by 2027 via 275 bps leverage.
Bear Case
CRE/NDFI exposure (11% loans) spikes NCOs beyond 55 bps guidance amid recession; organic growth stalls at 1-2% post-reclassification; margins revert below 30% if betas exceed 50% and branch ROI disappoints.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
NIM expansion to three-teens exit 2026 via deposit betas to mid-40s and $11B asset repricing, validating inflection and addressing trough ex...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Loan growth 3-4% average 2026 in commercial/specialty consumer, countering modest organic narrative with wholesale +8% Q4 YoY.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 earnings confirmed NIM up 6 bps to 3.07% and $5.2B returns, with $10B repurchase signaling cycle turn amid trough multiples.
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Prolonged downturn with CRE/NDFI (11% loans) driving NCOs >55 bps, eroding CET1 below 10% and forcing buyback halt.
Concern: Medium
Deposit betas exceed 50% compressing NIM below 3.0%, negating repricing tailwind and margin expansion.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong with 92% independent board featuring C-suite cyclical expertise (e.g., ex-CFO Cox, ex-CEO WestRock) and ownership guid...
Recent Activity
2025-10-16SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-5.02%Truist files Schedule 13G/A for FIRST TRUST EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND VIII holdings
2025-01-17SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.94%Truist reports fourth quarter 2024 financial results
2023-12-14SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+6.06%Truist files Schedule 13G for FT CBOE VEST SMID Rising Dividend Achievers Target Income ETF holdings
2023-11-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.55%Truist announces new COO, chief consumer & small business banking officer, and chief wholesale banking officer
2023-07-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.11%Truist Financial Corporation reported second quarter 2023 earnings of $1.2 billion, or $0.92 per share, with net interest income down 6.1% and adjusted PPNR down 1.3% year-over-year.
Valuation Table
5.0/10Directional
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$52
Base
$74
Bull
$46