TGT
Target Corporation$120.34
Sell
Target $99.86
Report: Mar 08, 2026Consumer Defensive • Discount Stores • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$120.34-17.0%
Rec: SellConviction: Low
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$99.86
(17% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$126.00
52 Week Low$83.44
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.42M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin27.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin8.0%
LTM EBIT Margin5.0%
LTM Operating Margin4.9%
LTM ROA6.3%
LTM ROE23.9%
LTM ROIC9.7%
LTM ROCE13.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$54.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$69.3B
Shares Outstanding453.20M
Total Debt (MM)$19.92B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.49B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$14.43B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-1.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-1.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR10.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$114.06
LTM EV/Revenue0.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit2.4x
LTM EV/EBIT13.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.3x
LTM P/E14.8x
LTM EV/FCF24.5x
LTM P/FCF19.4x
LTM P/TB0.9x
LTM P/B3.4x
Dividend Yield3.7%
Payout Ratio55.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $120.34 versus fair value $99.86 (-17.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on FY2026 Guidance Miss: Target has guided for 2% sales growth in 2026. Bear case centers on Upside Risk: Digital Acceleration. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Digital comparable sales growth of 2.4% and the expansion of the high-margin Roundel advertising business ($2B value) could drive a margin recovery. The 5% dividend yield and aggressive share repurchases ($11.7B since 2021) provide a technical support level for the stock.
Bear Case
Persistent negative comparable sales and an eroding ROIC (9.9%) indicate a weakening competitive moat. Escalating tariffs on the 50% of merchandise sourced internationally will likely compress gross margins, which only improved 60 basis points to 28.2% in the most recent year.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
FY2026 Guidance Miss: Target has guided for 2% sales growth in 2026. Given the 1.5% decline in 2025 and ongoing discretionary softness, a mi...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Tariff Implementation: With 50% of merchandise sourced internationally, new trade policies could impose 'meaningful year-over-year profit pr...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Target is at a critical juncture following the February 2026 CEO transition and the recent Q4 earnings beat, which has created a temporary v...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Upside Risk: Digital Acceleration. If the Chicago fulfillment pilot and AI-driven 'Target Trend Brain' drive digital growth above 5%, the co...
Concern: High
Asset Impairment: Continued store traffic declines could trigger non-cash impairment charges on the $33.7B PP&E base, eroding the tangible b...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is currently in a state of 'Status Quo' following the internal CEO promotion. We identify a three-pronged Governanc...
Recent Activity
2026-03-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.74%Target Corporation reported Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 earnings with sales decline but improved margins and 2026 growth outlook.
2025-08-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.33%Target appoints Michael J. Fiddelke as CEO effective February 1, 2026, succeeding Brian C. Cornell who will become Executive Chair.
2025-05-21SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.21%Target announces departures of Christina Hennington and Amy Tu from executive roles, effective May 25 and June 1, 2025 respectively.
2025-04-10Market Movement
-5.10%Market/Sector Move -5.10%
2025-04-08Press Release
-5.95%Rcpdirect V Exceeds Target Fund Size, Closing On ~$994 Million
Valuation Table
9.5/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$0
Bear
$50
Base
$59
Bull
$120