TKO
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.$223.87
Buy
Target $483.06
Report: Mar 07, 2026Communication Services • Entertainment • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$223.87+115.8%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$223.87
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$483.06
(116% above current)
Stop Loss
$133.07
(41% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$226.94
52 Week Low$133.07
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.13M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin59.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.8%
LTM EBIT Margin10.0%
LTM Operating Margin17.6%
LTM ROA1.3%
LTM ROE4.9%
LTM ROIC10.5%
LTM ROCE3.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$39.1B
Enterprise Value (MM)$42.0B
Shares Outstanding78.37M
Total Debt (MM)$4.06B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.19B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.88B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth68.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$231.75
LTM EV/Revenue8.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit14.8x
LTM EV/EBIT89.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA42.7x
LTM P/E200.3x
LTM EV/FCF36.1x
LTM P/FCF33.6x
LTM P/TB10.5x
LTM P/B10.5x
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout Ratio95.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $223.87 versus fair value $483.06 (115.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on WWE on Netflix Launch and Execution The transition of WWE's flagship programming to Netflix represents a massive shift toward high-margin recurring revenue and global reach. Bear case centers on Media Rights Renewal Disruption The risk that future media rights renewals face increased competition or a shift in broadcaster strategy, leading to lower-than-expected escalators or margin compression. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Landmark media rights deals provide high-visibility, high-margin recurring revenue for the next 5-7 years; aggressive capital return program including $1.1B in buybacks at highly accretive prices; massive FCF generation with 24.6% margins supporting rapid deleveraging.
Bear Case
High financial leverage at 2.9x Net Debt/EBITDA and thin net margins of 4.1% leave little room for error; potential for media rights fragmentation to eventually erode pricing power; integration risks from recent acquisitions like IMG and On Location.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
WWE on Netflix Launch and Execution The transition of WWE's flagship programming to Netflix represents a massive shift toward high-margin re...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
UFC-Paramount Rights Step-up The commencement of the $7.7 billion UFC-Paramount deal will significantly boost high-margin media revenue and...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
TKO is at a critical inflection point as it begins to realize the full financial benefits of its recently secured multi-billion dollar media...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Media Rights Renewal Disruption The risk that future media rights renewals face increased competition or a shift in broadcaster strategy, le...
Concern: Low
Financial Leverage and Interest Burden High net debt of $2.9 billion and an interest coverage ratio of 2.3x could constrain capital allocati...
Concern: Medium
TKO's management team effectively stewards a Mature_Compounder business. The stewardship verdict is strong, as evidenced by the $451.5 milli...
Recent Activity
2026-02-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.01%TKO Group Holdings reports Q4 and full year 2025 results, announces $1B share repurchase program
2025-05-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.50%TKO Group Holdings reports Q1 2025 results and raises full-year guidance following acquisition of IMG, On Location, and PBR.
2025-02-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.84%TKO Group Holdings reports Q4 and full-year 2024 results, announces acquisition of IMG, On Location, and PBR.
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.73%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) EX-99.1 Exhibit 99.1 TKO ANNOUNCES APPROVAL OF CAPITAL RETURN PROGRAM; ALSO ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC ACQUISITION OF SPORTS ASSETS FROM ENDEAVOR Board Authorized $2 Billion Share Repurchase Program and Approved Initiation of...
2024-08-08SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.78%Excerpt: UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D. C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Date of report (Date of earliest event reported): August 8,...
Valuation Table
9.4/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$460
Bear
$747
Base
$972
Bull
$224