TMO
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.$501.97
Sell
Target $424.23
Report: Mar 08, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Diagnostics & Research • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$501.97-15.5%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$424.23
(15% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$643.99
52 Week Low$385.46
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.36M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin40.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin25.7%
LTM EBIT Margin19.5%
LTM Operating Margin17.4%
LTM ROA6.5%
LTM ROE13.1%
LTM ROIC15.3%
LTM ROCE9.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$182.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$212.1B
Shares Outstanding374.00M
Total Debt (MM)$39.38B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$9.85B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$29.53B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-0.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-0.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR0.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$650.58
LTM EV/Revenue4.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.6x
LTM EV/EBIT24.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.5x
LTM P/E27.2x
LTM EV/FCF33.5x
LTM P/FCF28.8x
LTM P/TB4.0x
LTM P/B3.4x
Dividend Yield0.3%
Payout Ratio9.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $501.97 versus fair value $424.23 (-15.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Integration of the $9B Clario acquisition, which carries significant execution risk and could further strain the balance sheet if synergies do not materialize. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from geopolitical trade decoupling and tariff escalation, which permanently impairs pricing power and margins. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
83% recurring revenue provides high cash flow visibility; PPI system continues to drive 100+ bps of productivity gains; AI-driven efficiencies in the laboratory segment could unlock future margin expansion.
Bear Case
Moat erosion evidenced by ROIC trailing peers by 430 basis points; aggressive debt-funded buybacks executed at high multiples (19.5x EV/EBITDA); persistent China weakness and tariff headwinds squeezing gross margins.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Integration of the $9B Clario acquisition, which carries significant execution risk and could further strain the balance sheet if synergies...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Continued high-single-digit declines in the China market, which represents a significant portion of the company's growth strategy.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Thermo Fisher is at a critical juncture as it faces a structural growth slowdown and a major leadership transition in the CFO role, making t...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion from geopolitical trade decoupling and tariff escalation, which permanently impairs pricing power and margins.
Concern: Medium
Financial risk from high leverage and debt-funded capital returns.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently in a 'Status Quo' phase where the long-term plan is being tested by macro headwinds. The governance outcome tree su...
Recent Activity
2025-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.14%Thermo Fisher reports Q2 2025 results with $10.85B revenue, $5.36 adjusted EPS, and expanded Sanofi partnership
2025-04-09Market Movement
+8.17%Market/Sector Move +8.17%
2025-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.78%Thermo Fisher Scientific reported Q4 2024 and full year 2024 financial results with revenue growth and strong earnings performance.
2023-10-25SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.47%Thermo Fisher reports Q3 2023 results with $10.57B revenue, $5.69 adjusted EPS, and announces Olink acquisition
2022-04-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.38%Thermo Fisher reports Q1 2022 results with $11.82B revenue, $7.25 adjusted EPS, and $2.0B stock repurchase
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$384
Bear
$559
Bull
$502