TPR
Tapestry, Inc.$149.60
Sell
Target $115.19
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Luxury Goods • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$149.60-23.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$115.19
(23% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$161.97
52 Week Low$58.39
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.28M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin76.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin12.5%
LTM EBIT Margin9.6%
LTM Operating Margin9.5%
LTM ROA7.8%
LTM ROE63.3%
LTM ROIC11.6%
LTM ROCE14.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$28.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$31.5B
Shares Outstanding204.10M
Total Debt (MM)$3.94B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.05B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.89B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth10.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-9.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-7.7%
Valuation
Street Target Price$158.85
LTM EV/Revenue4.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.5x
LTM EV/EBIT43.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA33.5x
LTM P/E54.7x
LTM EV/FCF19.2x
LTM P/FCF17.4x
LTM P/TB5.9x
LTM P/B51.8x
Dividend Yield1.1%
Payout Ratio55.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $149.6 versus fair value $115.19 (-23.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Q3 FY2026 Earnings Release: This will be a critical test of whether Coach can maintain its 25% growth momentum and whether Kate Spade's decline has bottomed out. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Secondary Brands: The $854.8 million impairment of Kate Spade suggests that the brand's cultural relevance is fading, which could lead to a permanent loss of pricing power. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Coach brand momentum is accelerating, with 25% growth driven by successful Gen Z acquisition and AUR expansion. Management's aggressive $2 billion buyback program provides a significant floor for earnings per share in the near term.
Bear Case
Kate Spade is suffering from brand fatigue, evidenced by an $854.8 million impairment and a 14% revenue decline in the most recent quarter. Insider selling is rampant, with executives divesting $43 million in stock as the valuation reaches multi-year highs.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Q3 FY2026 Earnings Release: This will be a critical test of whether Coach can maintain its 25% growth momentum and whether Kate Spade's decl...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Implementation of Tariff Mitigation Strategies: The market is closely watching how Tapestry handles the $160 million headwind from Chinese i...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Tapestry is relevant for analysis now because the stock has surged 60% in the last year, reaching a valuation that appears decoupled from it...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion in Secondary Brands: The $854.8 million impairment of Kate Spade suggests that the brand's cultural relevance is fading, which...
Concern: Medium
Geopolitical and Trade Policy Risk: A $160 million tariff headwind represents a direct 230 basis point hit to margins that must be offset by...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is cautious. While the board is independent and has overseen aggressive capital returns, the lack of insider buying...
Recent Activity
2026-02-06Analyst Target
+6.22%Firm: Barclays Analyst: Adrienne Yih Price Target: $179.00 Price When Posted: $143.19 Implied Upside: +25.0%
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.21%Tapestry reports Q2 FY26 results with record revenue and raises full year outlook
2025-11-06SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
-9.61%FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson report 3.5% beneficial ownership of Tapestry Inc. common stock as of 9/30/2025.
2025-08-15Analyst Target
+5.28%Firm: Bernstein Analyst: Aneesha Sherman Price Target: $112.00 Price When Posted: $97.61 Implied Upside: +14.7%
2025-08-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-15.71%Tapestry reports Q4 FY25 and full year results with record performance and initiates FY26 outlook
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$93
Bear
$128
Base
$157
Bull
$150