TRGP
Targa Resources Corp.$239.01
Sell
Target $195.52
Report: Mar 13, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Midstream • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$239.01-18.2%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$195.52
(18% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$253.40
52 Week Low$144.14
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.47M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin30.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin28.3%
LTM EBIT Margin19.4%
LTM Operating Margin19.6%
LTM ROA7.7%
LTM ROE68.5%
LTM ROIC9.2%
LTM ROCE16.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$53.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$71.2B
Shares Outstanding214.90M
Total Debt (MM)$17.43B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$166.10M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$17.27B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-6.6%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR18.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR29.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$234.80
LTM EV/Revenue4.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit13.6x
LTM EV/EBIT21.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA14.8x
LTM P/E29.1x
LTM EV/FCF121.8x
LTM P/FCF92.3x
LTM P/TB2.3x
LTM P/B17.6x
Dividend Yield1.6%
Payout Ratio46.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $239.01 versus fair value $195.52 (-18.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Post-Speedway run-rate EBITDA exceeding 6 billion dollars. Bear case centers on Lower-for-longer commodity prices and a cyclical downturn in Permian drilling activity. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Record Permian gas volumes grew 11% YoY to over 6 Bcf/d, and the integrated wellhead-to-water strategy provides a widening structural moat in NGL fractionation.
Bear Case
Insiders have sold $30 million in stock over the last 12 months with zero purchases, and the company's Debt/Equity ratio has climbed to 7.18x.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Post-Speedway run-rate EBITDA exceeding 6 billion dollars. This addresses market concerns about growth sustainability after the current peak...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Targa is benefiting from record Permian volumes and a rational oligopolistic industry structure, but its valuation has reached a cyclical pe...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Targa is currently relevant for analysis because it is trading at a multi-year high valuation while simultaneously experiencing its most sig...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Lower-for-longer commodity prices and a cyclical downturn in Permian drilling activity. This would impair the 10% of margins that are not fe...
Concern: Medium
The bear case fair value of 12.34 is determined by applying a 20% fire-sale haircut to the Net Liquidation Value. While the company survives...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board possesses deep cyclical expertise, including Audit Chair Laura Fulton and Director Keith T...
Recent Activity
2025-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.25%Targa Resources reports record Q3 2025 results and announces 25% increase to 2026 dividend
2025-05-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.01%Targa Resources reports record Q1 2025 financial results with 22% increase in adjusted EBITDA to $1.2 billion
2024-02-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.58%Unavailable
2023-11-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.25%Targa Resources reports Q3 2023 results and announces 50% increase to 2024 dividend
2022-08-04Market Movement
-5.41%Market/Sector Move -5.41%
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade
