TROW
T. Rowe Price Group, Inc.$91.99
Hold
Target $107.30
Report: Mar 07, 2026Financial Services • Asset Management • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$91.99+16.6%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$82.54
(10% below current)
Fair Value
$107.30
(17% above current)
Stop Loss
$82.57
(10% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$118.22
52 Week Low$77.85
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.33M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin55.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin43.2%
LTM EBIT Margin37.7%
LTM Operating Margin29.9%
LTM ROA14.5%
LTM ROE19.6%
LTM ROIC31.9%
LTM ROCE19.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$19.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$16.7B
Shares Outstanding218.07M
Total Debt (MM)$447.20M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.38B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-2.93B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR4.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.5%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR11.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$106.25
LTM EV/Revenue2.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.1x
LTM EV/EBIT6.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA5.3x
LTM P/E9.4x
LTM EV/FCF11.3x
LTM P/FCF13.3x
LTM P/TB1.7x
LTM P/B1.8x
Dividend Yield5.6%
Payout Ratio54.8%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $91.99 versus fair value $107.3 (16.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Scaling of the Goldman Sachs strategic collaboration, which includes co-branded Target Date series and model portfolios, expected to launch in mid-2026. Bear case centers on Permanent moat erosion due to the continued shift toward low-cost passive investing, which impairs the firm's pricing power and return on capital. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Elite financial profile with 31.9% ROIC and $3.38 billion net cash; valuation disconnect at 9.6x TTM P/E versus 12.6x 5-year average; successful pivot to ETFs and private credit provides a new growth runway.
Bear Case
Structural decline in active management leads to terminal outflows; fee compression to 38.8 bps permanently impairs margins; competitive intensity from Vanguard and BlackRock erodes the retirement moat.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Scaling of the Goldman Sachs strategic collaboration, which includes co-branded Target Date series and model portfolios, expected to launch...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Stabilization of net flows in the Target-Date franchise, which saw $2.6 billion in net inflows in Q3 2025.
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
T. Rowe Price is at a critical juncture as it integrates the $2.5 billion OHA acquisition and launches major partnerships to offset structur...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Permanent moat erosion due to the continued shift toward low-cost passive investing, which impairs the firm's pricing power and return on ca...
Concern: Medium
Investment underperformance in flagship equity strategies, which drives redemptions and damages brand equity.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate. The board is strong, led by Audit Chair Mark Bartlett (ex-Ernst & Young), providing robust financial oversight. Whi...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05Analyst Target
-5.15%Firm: Barclays Price Target: $94.00 Price When Posted: $97.02 Implied Downside: -3.1%
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.49%T. Rowe Price reports Q4 2025 and full year 2025 results with $1.8 trillion AUM
2025-09-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.84%Goldman Sachs and T. Rowe Price announce strategic collaboration with $1 billion investment
2023-11-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.07%T. Rowe Price reports preliminary AUM of $1.31 trillion with $6.3 billion net outflows for October 2023
2023-07-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.27%T. Rowe Price reports Q2 2023 results with $1.40 trillion AUM and $20 billion net outflows
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$83
Bear
$105
Base
$126
Bull
$92