TSCO
Tractor Supply Company$50.59
Sell
Target $40.56
Report: Mar 07, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Specialty Retail • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$50.59-19.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$40.56
(20% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$63.99
52 Week Low$44.44
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.93M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin36.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin12.6%
LTM EBIT Margin9.5%
LTM Operating Margin9.5%
LTM ROA10.3%
LTM ROE44.4%
LTM ROIC11.2%
LTM ROCE18.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$23.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$29.6B
Shares Outstanding528.02M
Total Debt (MM)$5.94B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$194.11M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.75B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR3.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR1.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$59.00
LTM EV/Revenue1.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.2x
LTM EV/EBIT20.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.1x
LTM P/E21.8x
LTM EV/FCF29.7x
LTM P/FCF23.9x
LTM P/TB2.3x
LTM P/B9.2x
Dividend Yield2.0%
Payout Ratio44.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $50.59 versus fair value $40.56 (-19.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Operating Margin Inflection Point: The market is waiting for the 'normalization' of investments in 2026. Bear case centers on Rural Consumer Exhaustion: Persistent inflation in essential goods (CUE) may eventually force rural consumers to cut even needs-based spending or trade down to lower-margin alternatives. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Resilient CUE categories (51% of sales) provide a stable revenue floor; Direct Sales specialists (targeting 100 reps) could drive high-ticket growth; Final-mile delivery hubs (covering 50% of stores) enhance omnichannel competitive advantage.
Bear Case
Incremental ROIC of -0.5% indicates value destruction; 17% effective tariff rate on China-sourced private labels threatens margins; heavy insider selling ($25M) suggests management lacks confidence in the current valuation.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Operating Margin Inflection Point: The market is waiting for the 'normalization' of investments in 2026. If margins continue to drift toward...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Tariff Escalation: Any increase in the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports will directly hit the 30% of sales derived from private labe...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Tractor Supply is relevant for analysis now because it has just completed a fiscal year where it missed the low end of its comparable store...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Rural Consumer Exhaustion: Persistent inflation in essential goods (CUE) may eventually force rural consumers to cut even needs-based spendi...
Concern: Medium
Asset Obsolescence: The aggressive investment in 'Fusion' remodels and new distribution centers may become a 'stranded asset' risk if the sh...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is technically sound, with a high degree of independence and separate leadership roles. However, the stewardship ve...
Recent Activity
2026-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.58%Tractor Supply Company reports Q4 and fiscal 2025 financial results and provides fiscal 2026 outlook.
2025-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.02%Tractor Supply Company reports Q4 and fiscal 2024 financial results and provides fiscal 2025 outlook.
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.09%Tractor Supply Company reports Q3 2024 financial results and updates fiscal 2024 outlook.
2023-01-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.03%Tractor Supply Company reports record Q4 and fiscal 2022 financial results and provides robust fiscal 2023 outlook.
2022-04-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.73%Tractor Supply Company reports Q1 2022 financial results and reiterates fiscal 2022 outlook.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$31
Bear
$47
Base
$56
Bull
$51