TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited$371.25
Sell
Target $274.89
Report: Feb 24, 2026Technology • Semiconductors • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$371.25-26.0%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$274.89
(26% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$390.21
52 Week Low$134.25
Avg. 3 Month Volume13.90M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin59.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin73.9%
LTM EBIT Margin1688.8%
LTM Operating Margin1589.9%
LTM ROA23.4%
LTM ROE35.1%
LTM ROIC46.7%
LTM ROCE1.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$1,752.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$1,694.0B
Shares Outstanding25.93B
Total Debt (MM)$930.74B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2767.86B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-1837.12B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-20.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth20.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR19.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR20.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR21.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$408.00
LTM EV/Revenue13.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit0.7x
LTM EV/EBIT0.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA18.8x
LTM P/E31.9x
LTM EV/FCF1.7x
LTM P/FCF1.7x
LTM P/TB0.2x
LTM P/B10.1x
Dividend Yield0.9%
Payout Ratio0.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $371.25 versus fair value $274.89 (-26.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Successful 2nm Process Ramp TSMC's transition to 2nm technology is expected to be a larger revenue contributor than 3nm. Bear case centers on Geopolitical Conflict in the Taiwan Strait A conflict would permanently impair the company's primary manufacturing base, leading to a total loss of production capacity for advanced nodes. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The AI boom is in its early stages, ensuring multi-year demand for TSMC's 2nm and CoWoS capacity; technology leadership grants the company absolute pricing power to offset cost increases.
Bear Case
The stock is priced for perfect execution at 37.8x P/E; structural margin dilution from overseas fabs and rising energy costs are being ignored; free cash flow is non-positive due to extreme CapEx intensity.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Successful 2nm Process Ramp TSMC's transition to 2nm technology is expected to be a larger revenue contributor than 3nm. Success here would...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Arizona Fab Volume Production The start of volume production at the first Arizona fab in H1 2025 will be a key test of TSMC's ability to man...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
TSMC is at a critical juncture as it prepares to ramp 2nm production while simultaneously scaling its global manufacturing footprint, making...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Geopolitical Conflict in the Taiwan Strait A conflict would permanently impair the company's primary manufacturing base, leading to a total...
Concern: Medium
Structural Margin Compression Overseas fab dilution and rising electricity costs in Taiwan could permanently lower the company's gross margi...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is generally positive, but the combined CEO/Chairman role and the lack of transparency regarding incentive metrics a...
Recent Activity
2025-10-10SEC Filing (6-K)
-6.41%TSMC reported September 2025 consolidated revenue of NT$330.98 billion.
2025-05-10market
+5.93%Market/Sector Move +5.93%
2025-02-27SEC Filing (6-K)
-6.95%TSMC issued audited consolidated financial statements for years ended December 31, 2024 and 2023.
2025-01-25SEC Filing (6-K)
-13.33%Excerpt: Source: Main Body 1934 Act Registration No. 1-14700 +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ | UNITED STATES | +-----------------------------------------------------------------------------+...
2024-10-17SEC Filing (6-K)
+9.79%TSMC reported Q3 2024 financial results with diluted EPS of NT$12.54.
Valuation Table
7.9/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$49
Bear
$275
Base
$430
Bull
$371