TSN
Tyson Foods, Inc.$59.81
Hold
Target $74.16
Report: Mar 13, 2026Consumer Defensive • Agricultural Farm Products • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$59.81+24.0%
Rec: HoldConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$57.05
(5% below current)
Fair Value
$74.16
(24% above current)
Stop Loss
$50.56
(15% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$66.41
52 Week Low$50.56
Avg. 3 Month Volume3.08M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin5.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin4.0%
LTM EBIT Margin1.5%
LTM Operating Margin1.5%
LTM ROA0.6%
LTM ROE1.1%
LTM ROIC3.6%
LTM ROCE2.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$22.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$29.6B
Shares Outstanding352.00M
Total Debt (MM)$8.36B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.28B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$7.08B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth2.8%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR0.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-22.3%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-56.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$70.25
LTM EV/Revenue0.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.1x
LTM EV/EBIT36.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.4x
LTM P/E112.8x
LTM EV/FCF21.2x
LTM P/FCF16.1x
LTM P/TB1.1x
LTM P/B1.3x
Dividend Yield3.1%
Payout Ratio340.7%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $59.81 versus fair value $74.16 (24.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of Logistics Savings Tyson is transitioning to automated cold storage, which is expected to generate $200M in annual savings by 2030. Bear case centers on Lower-for-Longer Beef Trough A structural shortage of cattle could keep beef margins negative for several years, exhausting liquidity and threatening the dividend. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Starter sizing and Transitional horizon.
Bull Case
The recovery in the Chicken segment, where margins reached 10.9% in Q1 2026, provides a powerful offset to beef losses. Additionally, the $200M in annual logistics savings represents a structural margin floor that did not exist in prior cycles.
Bear Case
A 'lower-for-longer' beef trough, driven by a 16% decline in cow slaughter, could delay a herd rebuild until 2027. Furthermore, recurring legal contingencies, including $653M in FY 2025, suggest that adjusted earnings may overstate true cash profitability.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Realization of Logistics Savings Tyson is transitioning to automated cold storage, which is expected to generate $200M in annual savings by...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Beef Segment Inflection A turn in cattle supply or a significant reduction in feed costs would rapidly expand margins from the current 2.0%...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Tyson is relevant now because it is trading at 1.0x Tangible Book while the Chicken segment is already showing a margin breakout to 10.9%, s...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Lower-for-Longer Beef Trough A structural shortage of cattle could keep beef margins negative for several years, exhausting liquidity and th...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory and Legal Liabilities Ongoing USDA investigations and wage-fixing litigation could result in settlements that exceed the $653M al...
Concern: Medium
The governance structure is dominated by the Tyson family, creating a clear Outcome Tree: 1. Status Quo: The family continues to support Don...
Recent Activity
2025-11-22SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.52%Tyson Foods announces network changes to strengthen long-term beef business
2024-11-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.55%Tyson Foods reports fourth quarter and fiscal 2024 results with significant profitability improvements
Valuation Table
9.6/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$69
Bear
$130
Bull
$60