TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.$23.95
Hold
Target $26.71
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$23.95+11.5%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$20.55
(14% below current)
Fair Value
$26.71
(12% above current)
Stop Loss
$21.08
(12% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Strategic (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$91.45
52 Week Low$21.03
Avg. 3 Month Volume18.19M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin78.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin26.8%
LTM EBIT Margin20.4%
LTM Operating Margin20.3%
LTM ROA7.5%
LTM ROE16.9%
LTM ROIC23.5%
LTM ROCE19.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$10.6B
Shares Outstanding479.90M
Total Debt (MM)$436.33M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$658.17M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-221.84M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth18.5%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR22.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR53.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR102.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$40.88
LTM EV/Revenue3.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.6x
LTM EV/EBIT17.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.6x
LTM P/E24.4x
LTM EV/FCF13.5x
LTM P/FCF13.8x
LTM P/TB1.8x
LTM P/B4.3x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $23.95 versus fair value $26.71 (11.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Appointment of a permanent, high-pedigree CFO. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from Amazon's DSP expansion. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Strategic (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Dominant 50% revenue share in the rapidly growing CTV market; Kokai AI platform driving superior client ROI (94% better click-through rates); fortress balance sheet with $1.3 billion in cash and zero debt.
Bear Case
Intensifying competition from Amazon and Google in premium CTV inventory; decelerating revenue growth from 25% to 18-20%; leadership instability following the abrupt CFO termination.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Appointment of a permanent, high-pedigree CFO. This would address the primary governance concern and signal a return to operational stabilit...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Formalization of the OpenAI partnership. A strategic tie-up would validate TTD's AI leadership and provide a unique data advantage in the 'o...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
The Trade Desk is at a critical juncture as it navigates its first major execution setback and leadership transition while the stock trades...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion from Amazon's DSP expansion. If Amazon successfully leverages its Netflix partnership to lock up premium CTV inventory, TTD's '...
Concern: Medium
Privacy-focused litigation and regulatory pressure. Multiple class-action lawsuits allege that UID2 and Adsrvr Pixel technologies collect pe...
Concern: Medium
The governance situation is a 'Outcome Tree' scenario: 1. Status Quo: Jeff Green maintains control, appoints a strong permanent CFO, and Kok...
Recent Activity
2026-03-05Analyst Target
+18.36%Firm: D.A. Davidson Analyst: Tom White Price Target: $32.00 Price When Posted: $30.00 Implied Upside: +6.7%
2026-02-03Analyst Target
-8.64%Firm: KeyBanc Analyst: Justin Patterson Price Target: $40.00 Price When Posted: $29.75 Implied Upside: +34.5%
2025-12-11Analyst Target
-5.61%Firm: Jefferies Price Target: $40.00 Price When Posted: $37.15 Implied Upside: +7.7%
2025-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.32%The Trade Desk reported Q3 2025 revenue of $739 million, up 18% year-over-year, with new product innovations and leadership appointments.
2025-10-18SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+5.04%BlackRock increases stake in The Trade Desk
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$25
Bear
$44
Bull
$24