TTWO
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.$220.68
Unclear
Target $227.05
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Electronic Gaming & Multimedia • Turnaround CandidateSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$220.68+2.9%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$174.65
(21% below current)
Fair Value
$227.05
(3% above current)
Stop Loss
$108.39
(51% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$264.79
52 Week Low$187.63
Avg. 3 Month Volume2.24M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin56.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin-35.9%
LTM EBIT Margin-59.4%
LTM Operating Margin-59.3%
LTM ROA-40.7%
LTM ROE-126.4%
LTM ROIC-135.3%
LTM ROCE-54.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$36.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$37.8B
Shares Outstanding185.18M
Total Debt (MM)$3.51B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$2.25B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$1.26B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth20.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR10.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$292.50
LTM EV/Revenue5.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.3x
LTM EV/EBIT-9.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA-16.1x
LTM P/E-9.2x
LTM EV/FCF77.6x
LTM P/FCF75.0x
LTM P/TB7.6x
LTM P/B10.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $220.68 versus fair value $227.05 (2.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Launch of Grand Theft Auto VI This is the single most important event for the company, expected to establish a new financial baseline and drive record net bookings in FY2027. Bear case centers on Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk The company is in a 'race against time' to reach the GTA VI launch before exhausting its $2.3B cash balance or breaching debt covenants, given its negative free cash flow of -$215M. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Grand Theft Auto VI launch establishes a new, higher financial baseline for the company; Mobile DTC expansion captures a higher share of revenue by bypassing app store fees; $165M cost-reduction program restores operating leverage.
Bear Case
High leverage (192% debt-to-equity peak) and negative FCF create insolvency risk if GTA VI is delayed again; Heavy insider selling ($158.5M in 12 months) suggests management lacks confidence in the near-term recovery; Structural margin decay indicates the Zynga acquisition has failed to deliver promised synergies.
Key Catalysts
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Critical
Launch of Grand Theft Auto VI This is the single most important event for the company, expected to establish a new financial baseline and dr...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Execution of $165M Cost-Reduction Program Successful implementation of headcount cuts and project cancellations is required to reverse the c...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Take-Two is relevant for analysis now because it has just raised its FY2026 net bookings outlook to $6.65B-$6.70B while simultaneously confi...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Existential Liquidity and Solvency Risk The company is in a 'race against time' to reach the GTA VI launch before exhausting its $2.3B cash...
Concern: Medium
GTA VI Execution and Reception Risk The valuation is entirely dependent on the commercial success of a single title. Any further delay or a...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is poor due to the massive misalignment between executive actions and shareholder interests. Insiders have sold $158...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.38%Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. reports third quarter fiscal 2026 results with raised outlook
2025-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.08%Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. reports second quarter fiscal 2026 results with raised outlook and new Grand Theft Auto VI launch date
2025-05-02SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.66%Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. reiterates expectations for sequential increases in Net Bookings for Fiscal 2026 and 2027, and announces Grand Theft Auto VI release date of May 26, 2026
2025-02-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+14.03%Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. reports fiscal third quarter 2025 results with $1.37 billion net bookings and updates fiscal year 2025 outlook.
2024-11-07SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.53%Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. reports second quarter fiscal 2025 results with updated outlook
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$78
Bear
$165
Base
$339
Bull
$221