TXN
Texas Instruments Incorporated$204.19
Unclear
Target $215.36
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Semiconductors • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$204.19+5.5%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$165.66
(19% below current)
Fair Value
$215.36
(5% above current)
Stop Loss
$170.00
(17% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$231.32
52 Week Low$139.95
Avg. 3 Month Volume7.69M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin57.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin46.7%
LTM EBIT Margin35.4%
LTM Operating Margin34.1%
LTM ROA14.5%
LTM ROE30.4%
LTM ROIC16.5%
LTM ROCE19.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$176.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$187.0B
Shares Outstanding909.00M
Total Debt (MM)$14.05B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.23B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$10.82B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth13.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-4.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-9.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-16.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$211.79
LTM EV/Revenue10.6x
LTM EV/Gross Profit18.5x
LTM EV/EBIT29.9x
LTM EV/EBITDA22.7x
LTM P/E35.2x
LTM EV/FCF71.8x
LTM P/FCF67.7x
LTM P/TB5.9x
LTM P/B10.8x
Dividend Yield2.9%
Payout Ratio101.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $204.19 versus fair value $215.36 (5.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on 300mm Fab Ramp-up in Sherman and Lehi. Bear case centers on China Geopolitical and Regulatory Risk. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
The 300mm manufacturing transition will drive a 40% unit cost advantage, leading to a Harvest Year in 2026 with free cash flow potentially surging over 150%. Data center revenue is growing at a 70% YoY clip, now representing 9% of total sales.
Bear Case
Margin compression is likely to persist as depreciation expenses are projected to reach 2.4 billion in 2026. Geopolitical risks in China, which accounts for 20% of revenue, could lead to retaliatory tariffs or market share loss to domestic competitors.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
300mm Fab Ramp-up in Sherman and Lehi. Successful execution and high yields at these new facilities will validate the structural cost advant...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Critical
Industrial End-Market Recovery. A broad-based recovery in industrial demand, which is currently below peak levels, would drive significant o...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Texas Instruments is at a critical juncture as it integrates its largest acquisition in years (Silicon Labs) while simultaneously navigating...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
China Geopolitical and Regulatory Risk. The 37-day anti-dumping investigation and potential retaliatory tariffs could impair TI's 20% revenu...
Concern: Medium
Margin Compression from Excess Capacity. If the industrial recovery lags, the elevated depreciation from new fabs (projected at 2.4 billion...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is generally strong, supported by a board of industry veterans like Martin Craighead and Janet Clark. However, the lack of insid...
Recent Activity
2026-01-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+9.94%Texas Instruments reported Q4 2025 revenue of $4.42 billion, net income of $1.16 billion, and EPS of $1.27, with a 6-cent reduction not in original guidance.
2025-10-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.60%Texas Instruments reports Q3 2025 financial results with revenue of $4.74 billion and EPS of $1.48
2025-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-13.34%Texas Instruments reports Q2 2025 financial results with revenue of $4.45 billion and EPS of $1.41
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.56%Texas Instruments reports Q1 2025 financial results with revenue of $4.07 billion and EPS of $1.28
2025-01-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.52%Texas Instruments reported Q4 2024 revenue of $4.01 billion, net income of $1.21 billion, and EPS of $1.30, with a 2-cent benefit not in original guidance.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade