TYL
Tyler Technologies, Inc.$354.62
Unclear
Target $361.68
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$354.62+2.0%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$278.22
(22% below current)
Fair Value
$361.68
(2% above current)
Stop Loss
$251.94
(29% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$621.34
52 Week Low$283.71
Avg. 3 Month Volume644K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin46.5%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.3%
LTM EBIT Margin16.9%
LTM Operating Margin15.3%
LTM ROA5.8%
LTM ROE8.7%
LTM ROIC277.5%
LTM ROCE10.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$14.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$14.3B
Shares Outstanding42.99M
Total Debt (MM)$642.61M
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.02B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-372.79M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth9.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR11.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR22.8%
Valuation
Street Target Price$473.91
LTM EV/Revenue6.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit13.2x
LTM EV/EBIT36.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA26.4x
LTM P/E46.6x
LTM EV/FCF23.1x
LTM P/FCF23.7x
LTM P/TB6.7x
LTM P/B4.0x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $354.62 versus fair value $361.68 (2.0% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on AI Monetization and Product Expansion Successful deployment of agentic AI across the suite is expected to drive 10-30% productivity gains for clients, allowing Tyler to capture a portion of this value through higher SaaS fees. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion and Competitive Disruption Technological disruption from AI-native competitors or a loss of pricing power due to budget constraints in the public sector could permanently impair Tyler's return on capital. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
SaaS revenue growth is accelerating, with cloud flips delivering a 1.7x to 1.8x uplift in maintenance-to-SaaS revenue conversion. AI initiatives, such as the resident assistant live in six states, are driving 10-30% productivity gains and providing a new lever for margin expansion. The company's net cash position and record free cash flow support a more aggressive capital allocation strategy, including the new 1 billion buyback program.
Bear Case
The Texas payments contract wind-down creates a material revenue hole that requires high-single-digit organic growth just to offset. R&D intensity has climbed to 8.8% of revenue, pressuring operating margins if AI-driven revenue fails to materialize quickly. Premium valuation multiples (P/E > 40x) leave little room for execution errors or further cybersecurity setbacks.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
AI Monetization and Product Expansion Successful deployment of agentic AI across the suite is expected to drive 10-30% productivity gains fo...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Completion of the For The Record Acquisition The pending 212.5 million acquisition of For The Record will expand Tyler's judicial solutions...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Tyler Technologies is at a critical juncture as it navigates the final stages of its post-NIC deleveraging and initiates a major leadership...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion and Competitive Disruption Technological disruption from AI-native competitors or a loss of pricing power due to budget constra...
Concern: High
Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities As a host of sensitive government data, a major ransomware attack or data breach could lead to catastrophic re...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong, characterized by long-tenured leadership and a board with deep public-sector and financial expertise. The...
Recent Activity
2026-02-13Analyst Target
+5.89%Firm: Barclays Analyst: Saket Kalia Price Target: $410.00 Price When Posted: $287.04 Implied Upside: +42.8%
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-15.39%Tyler Technologies reported Q4 2025 earnings with 6.3% revenue growth and record free cash flow
2026-02-11Analyst Target
-5.90%Firm: D.A. Davidson Price Target: $460.00 Price When Posted: $360.51 Implied Upside: +27.6%
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.50%Tyler Technologies to acquire For The Record for $212.5 million to enhance digital court recording capabilities.
2025-10-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.40%Tyler Technologies reports Q3 2025 earnings with 9.7% revenue growth and 15.5% subscription growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade