UBER
Uber Technologies, Inc.$76.52
Hold
Target $93.23
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$76.52+21.8%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$71.72
(6% below current)
Fair Value
$93.23
(22% above current)
Stop Loss
$60.63
(21% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term (3+ Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$101.99
52 Week Low$60.63
Avg. 3 Month Volume20.20M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin39.8%
LTM EBITDA Margin13.3%
LTM EBIT Margin11.8%
LTM Operating Margin10.7%
LTM ROA17.2%
LTM ROE40.3%
LTM ROIC16.3%
LTM ROCE13.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$148.0B
Enterprise Value (MM)$150.5B
Shares Outstanding2.07B
Total Debt (MM)$12.08B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$9.65B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.43B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth18.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR17.7%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGRN/A
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$105.04
LTM EV/Revenue2.9x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.3x
LTM EV/EBIT24.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA21.8x
LTM P/E14.7x
LTM EV/FCF15.4x
LTM P/FCF15.2x
LTM P/TB2.9x
LTM P/B5.5x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $76.52 versus fair value $93.23 (21.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Successful deployment of autonomous vehicle services in 15 cities. Bear case centers on Moat erosion due to regulatory driver classification changes. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term (3+ Years) horizon.
Bull Case
Uber is the definitive winner in the robotaxi race, leveraging 202 million monthly active users to become the essential demand layer for all AV developers. High-margin advertising revenue and the 46-million-member Uber One program provide a recurring, high-margin cash flow stream that supports aggressive share buybacks.
Bear Case
The transition to autonomous vehicles will be more capital-intensive than management admits, leading to margin compression. Furthermore, regulatory challenges regarding driver classification in the EU and ongoing litigation in the U.S. pose significant tail risks to the core business model.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Successful deployment of autonomous vehicle services in 15 cities. This will validate the asset-light partnership model and demonstrate the...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Acceleration of advertising revenue to a $2 billion run rate. High-margin advertising revenue will provide significant operating leverage an...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Uber is at a critical juncture as it transitions to an investment-grade compounder while simultaneously navigating a CFO change and the most...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat erosion due to regulatory driver classification changes. If the EU Platform Work Directive or U.S. state laws force driver reclassifica...
Concern: Medium
Technological disruption from AV manufacturers launching independent networks. If partners like Waymo or manufacturers like Tesla decide to...
Concern: Medium
The governance outlook is stable but requires monitoring due to the leadership transition. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Q...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.15%Uber reports record Q4 2025 results with 22% trip growth and highest profitability
2026-01-06Analyst Target
+5.95%Firm: Wolfe Research Price Target: $110.00 Price When Posted: $80.74 Implied Upside: +36.2%
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.06%Uber reports Q3 2025 results with 22% trip growth and record profitability
2025-05-10Market Movement
+6.39%Market/Sector Move +6.39%
2025-04-04Market Movement
-7.49%Market/Sector Move -7.49%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$63
Bear
$128
Bull
$77