UPS
United Parcel Service, Inc.$110.51
Unclear
Target $106.55
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Integrated Freight & Logistics • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$110.51-3.6%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$81.96
(26% below current)
Fair Value
$106.55
(4% below current)
Stop Loss
$57.29
(48% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$122.41
52 Week Low$82.00
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.55M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin34.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin13.5%
LTM EBIT Margin9.2%
LTM Operating Margin8.9%
LTM ROA7.9%
LTM ROE35.1%
LTM ROIC11.8%
LTM ROCE14.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$83.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$106.2B
Shares Outstanding849.10M
Total Debt (MM)$28.59B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.89B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$22.70B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-2.6%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-4.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-13.9%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-20.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$110.60
LTM EV/Revenue1.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.5x
LTM EV/EBIT13.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.9x
LTM P/E15.0x
LTM EV/FCF22.3x
LTM P/FCF17.5x
LTM P/TB1.3x
LTM P/B5.1x
Dividend Yield5.0%
Payout Ratio75.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $110.51 versus fair value $106.55 (-3.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Groundsaver Outsourcing to USPS UPS is transitioning its low-density Groundsaver volume to the USPS to improve network economics. Bear case centers on Amazon Glide-Down Persistence The intentional reduction of Amazon volume (1 million pieces per day) could lead to significant network underutilization if SMB and healthcare volumes do not grow fast enough to fill the gap, leading to the... Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Automation reaching 68% of U.S. volume drives cost-per-piece down by 28% in automated hubs; Healthcare logistics revenue hits $20 billion target by 2026 with high incremental margins; Groundsaver outsourcing to USPS eliminates low-density delivery costs.
Bear Case
Amazon glide-down persists beyond 2026, leaving the network underutilized; Rising labor costs from union contracts outpace automation-driven savings; Trade tariffs and geopolitical shifts permanently impair high-margin international air lanes.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Groundsaver Outsourcing to USPS UPS is transitioning its low-density Groundsaver volume to the USPS to improve network economics. This addre...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Healthcare Logistics Revenue Target UPS is targeting $20 billion in healthcare logistics revenue by 2026, supported by the integration of Fr...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
UPS is at a critical juncture as it enters the most intensive phase of its network reconfiguration, with 24 additional building closures pla...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Amazon Glide-Down Persistence The intentional reduction of Amazon volume (1 million pieces per day) could lead to significant network underu...
Concern: Medium
Trade Policy and Tariff Uncertainty Shifts in global trade lanes and potential new tariffs could permanently impair the high-margin Internat...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is focused on a high-stakes transformation. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Automation hits 68% by end-2026...
Recent Activity
2025-10-28SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.00%UPS reports Q3 2025 earnings with revenue decline and significant transformation costs.
2025-07-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.57%UPS reports Q2 2025 earnings with revenue decline and transformation strategy costs.
2025-01-30SEC Filing (8-K)
-14.11%UPS reports Q4 2024 earnings and announces 2025 strategic actions and guidance
2024-10-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.28%UPS reports Q3 2024 earnings with revenue growth and updated 2024 guidance
2024-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.05%UPS reports Q2 2024 earnings with revenue down 1.1% to $21.8B and operating profit down 30.1% to $1.9B
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$9
Bear
$99
Base
$20
Bull
$111