URI
United Rentals, Inc.$737.22
Sell
Target $607.40
Report: Mar 07, 2026Industrials • Rental & Leasing Services • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$737.22-17.6%
Rec: SellConviction: Medium
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$607.40
(18% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$1,021.47
52 Week Low$525.91
Avg. 3 Month Volume681K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin38.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin44.5%
LTM EBIT Margin25.2%
LTM Operating Margin24.7%
LTM ROA8.5%
LTM ROE27.9%
LTM ROIC12.6%
LTM ROCE16.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$45.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$60.8B
Shares Outstanding63.00M
Total Debt (MM)$15.35B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$459.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$14.89B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA2.1x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR11.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR9.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR9.1%
Valuation
Street Target Price$949.25
LTM EV/Revenue3.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.9x
LTM EV/EBIT15.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA8.5x
LTM P/E18.4x
LTM EV/FCF28.5x
LTM P/FCF21.5x
LTM P/TB2.1x
LTM P/B5.1x
Dividend Yield1.0%
Payout Ratio18.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $737.22 versus fair value $607.4 (-17.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Continued Margin Compression in FY2026 Reporting. Bear case centers on Cyclical Peak and Utilization Normalization. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Secular shift from equipment ownership to rental continues to expand the total addressable market; Federal infrastructure spending (IIJA) provides a multi-year demand floor for large-scale projects; Specialty segment expansion (11% YoY growth) offers higher margins and better cross-selling opportunities.
Bear Case
ROIC of 7.8% is failing to cover the 11.6% cost of capital, indicating value destruction; Margin compression of 180 basis points is being driven by permanent inflationary pressures in delivery and labor; Aggressive insider selling and a zero-equity liquidation floor suggest limited downside protection at current prices.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Continued Margin Compression in FY2026 Reporting. As the 60 specialty cold-starts from 2025 mature in a 'flattish' local market, the dilutiv...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Adverse Ruling or Settlement in Antitrust Litigation. A material development in the class-action lawsuit regarding price-fixing could force...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
United Rentals is relevant for immediate analysis because it recently announced a massive 5 billion USD buyback program that directly contra...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Cyclical Peak and Utilization Normalization. The primary risk is that the current 'Golden Age' of infrastructure spending has led to over-fl...
Concern: Medium
Interest Rate Sensitivity and Debt Service. With 15.4 billion USD in debt and 4.1 billion USD in variable-rate borrowings, a 'higher-for-lon...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is structurally sound but behaviorally concerning. The governance framework is robust, with high independence and strong shareho...
Recent Activity
2026-02-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.99%United Rentals appoints Alexander Taussig to its board of directors
2026-01-29SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.86%United Rentals announces Q4 2025 results, 2026 outlook, and $5B share repurchase program
2025-10-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.79%United Rentals reports strong Q3 2025 results and raises full-year guidance
2025-08-12Analyst Target
+5.43%Firm: Argus Research Analyst: Kristina Ruggeri Price Target: $935.00 Price When Posted: $908.14 Implied Upside: +3.0%
2025-07-24SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.96%United Rentals reports Q2 2025 results, raises guidance, and increases share repurchases by $400M to $1.9B
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade