VICI
VICI Properties Inc.$30.23
Unclear
Target $30.79
Report: Mar 07, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Diversified • Asset-Based OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$30.23+1.9%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$23.68
(22% below current)
Fair Value
$30.79
(2% above current)
Stop Loss
$16.47
(46% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Strategic (2-3 Years)
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$34.01
52 Week Low$26.55
Avg. 3 Month Volume10.14M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin97.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin90.5%
LTM EBIT Margin90.4%
LTM Operating Margin91.1%
LTM ROA6.0%
LTM ROE10.2%
LTM ROIC5.8%
LTM ROCE7.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$29.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$45.4B
Shares Outstanding1.07B
Total Debt (MM)$16.77B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$563.48M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$16.21B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR15.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR29.6%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR26.3%
Valuation
Street Target Price$31.60
LTM EV/Revenue11.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit11.6x
LTM EV/EBIT12.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.5x
LTM P/E10.5x
LTM EV/FCF18.1x
LTM P/FCF11.6x
LTM P/TB0.6x
LTM P/B1.1x
Dividend Yield6.5%
Payout Ratio67.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $30.23 versus fair value $30.79 (1.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Closing of the Golden Entertainment Sale-Leaseback. Bear case centers on Continued Equity Dilution. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
VICI's triple-net lease structure and 91.0% operating margins provide unparalleled cash flow visibility, while its $46.7 billion asset base is anchored by irreplaceable trophy real estate on the Las Vegas Strip. Furthermore, the company's 95% revenue hit rate and consistent AFFO guidance raises demonstrate superior operational execution.
Bear Case
The company's reliance on equity issuance has created $8.8 billion in net dilution, and its incremental ROIC of 6.1% is currently below its 9.5% cost of capital, suggesting that recent growth may be value-destructive on a per-share basis. Additionally, high tenant concentration with Caesars Entertainment remains a structural risk.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Closing of the Golden Entertainment Sale-Leaseback. This $1.16 billion transaction adds seven Nevada properties and validates VICI's ability...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Conversion of Credit Pipeline to Real Estate Ownership. VICI has $2.1 billion in active credit investments (e.g., Red Rock, Cain) that serve...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
VICI is relevant for analysis now as it initiates 2026 AFFO guidance of $2.42 to $2.45 per share, signaling continued operational growth des...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Continued Equity Dilution. The mechanism of funding growth through large stock issuances ($12.0 billion since 2021) may continue to erode pe...
Concern: Medium
Tenant Concentration and Lease Renegotiation. VICI's heavy reliance on Caesars Entertainment for a significant portion of its rent roll crea...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is 'Adequate.' Management has built a world-class portfolio and maintained operational excellence, but they have yet...
Recent Activity
2021-09-09SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.89%MGM Growth Properties LLC filed its 2020 annual report including audited financial statements and management's discussion and analysis.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$21
Bear
$33
Base
$40
Bull
$30
