VMC
Vulcan Materials Company$269.46
Sell
Target $238.09
Report: Mar 13, 2026Basic Materials • Construction Materials • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$269.46-11.6%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$238.09
(12% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$331.09
52 Week Low$218.87
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.26M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin27.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin30.6%
LTM EBIT Margin20.5%
LTM Operating Margin20.4%
LTM ROA6.4%
LTM ROE12.7%
LTM ROIC10.7%
LTM ROCE10.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$35.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$40.3B
Shares Outstanding131.40M
Total Debt (MM)$4.88B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$189.40M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$4.70B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.8%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR15.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR23.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$322.57
LTM EV/Revenue5.1x
LTM EV/Gross Profit18.5x
LTM EV/EBIT24.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA16.6x
LTM P/E33.0x
LTM EV/FCF34.7x
LTM P/FCF30.7x
LTM P/TB3.1x
LTM P/B4.2x
Dividend Yield0.7%
Payout Ratio24.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $269.46 versus fair value $238.09 (-11.6% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Mexico USMCA Arbitration Ruling A final ruling on the Sac Tun expropriation is expected within the mid-term. Bear case centers on Structural Margin Compression Vulcan's gross margins (27.4%) are significantly lower than peers (MLM 30.7%). Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) provides a decade-long demand tailwind, with 60% of funds still unspent. Furthermore, Vulcan's proximity to data center hubs (150M sq ft under construction in its markets) creates a high-margin demand sink that is less cyclical than residential housing.
Bear Case
The Mexico expropriation represents a permanent loss of a low-cost supply source, impacting EBITDA by up to $100M annually. Additionally, the company's 34.8x P/E multiple is at a significant premium to its 5-year average of 37.9x when adjusted for the current higher interest rate environment and decelerating 7.1% revenue growth.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Mexico USMCA Arbitration Ruling A final ruling on the Sac Tun expropriation is expected within the mid-term. A failure to secure significant...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Ready-Mix Divestiture Completion The exit from the lower-margin concrete business should theoretically boost consolidated margins. If margin...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Vulcan is at a crossroads following a Q4 2025 earnings miss and the formal start of Ronnie Pruitt's tenure as CEO, making the next two quart...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Structural Margin Compression Vulcan's gross margins (27.4%) are significantly lower than peers (MLM 30.7%). If the company cannot close thi...
Concern: High
Geopolitical Asset Loss The permanent loss of the Mexico quarry removes a key source of low-cost aggregates for the Gulf Coast market.
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board is high-quality, featuring capital allocation experts like Kathleen Quirk (CEO of Freeport...
Recent Activity
2025-04-30SEC Filing (SC 13G)
+6.92%JPMorgan Chase reports 5.1% ownership in Vulcan Materials Co.
2024-10-30SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.43%Vulcan Materials reports Q3 2024 results with margin expansion despite weather disruptions
2024-02-16SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.23%Vulcan Materials reports Q4 2023 and full year results with record performance
2023-05-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.50%Vulcan Materials reports Q1 2023 results with pricing momentum
2023-02-16SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.16%Vulcan Materials reports Q4 2022 and full year 2022 results with earnings growth
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$165
Bear
$241
Base
$277
Bull
$269