VRTX
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated$492.38
Sell
Target $396.99
Report: Mar 12, 2026Healthcare • Biotechnology • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$492.38-19.4%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$396.99
(19% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$510.77
52 Week Low$362.50
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.49M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin86.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin40.5%
LTM EBIT Margin38.8%
LTM Operating Margin34.8%
LTM ROA16.2%
LTM ROE22.7%
LTM ROIC29.9%
LTM ROCE23.3%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$113.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$110.2B
Shares Outstanding253.60M
Total Debt (MM)$1.85B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$5.08B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$-3.24B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA-0.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.9%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR10.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR3.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR6.0%
Valuation
Street Target Price$549.73
LTM EV/Revenue9.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit10.6x
LTM EV/EBIT23.7x
LTM EV/EBITDA22.6x
LTM P/E28.7x
LTM EV/FCF34.5x
LTM P/FCF35.5x
LTM P/TB4.7x
LTM P/B6.1x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $492.38 versus fair value $396.99 (-19.4% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Non-CF Revenue Miss: If the combined revenue from ALYFTREK, JOURNAVX, and CASGEVY fails to reach the $500 million target in FY2026, the diversification narrative will be broken. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion in Non-CF Markets: The biggest threat is that new competitors in the acute pain and renal markets permanently impair Vertex's pricing power and return on capital in its expansion areas. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The $12.3 billion cash pile allows for aggressive M&A and buybacks; non-CF products could contribute over $500 million in 2026; the CF moat remains impenetrable with 86% gross margins.
Bear Case
Core revenue growth has slowed to 8.9% from 14.2%; ROIC is in a structural decline; insiders are selling heavily at current prices, signaling a valuation peak.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Non-CF Revenue Miss: If the combined revenue from ALYFTREK, JOURNAVX, and CASGEVY fails to reach the $500 million target in FY2026, the dive...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
The primary value driver for Vertex is its near-monopoly in CF, but with revenue growth fading to 8.9%, the market is over-relying on unprov...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Vertex is at a critical juncture where the market is pricing in the success of its diversification strategy before the revenue has materiali...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat Erosion in Non-CF Markets: The biggest threat is that new competitors in the acute pain and renal markets permanently impair Vertex's p...
Concern: Medium
The bear case models moat erosion from low-cost competitors in the pain market and a failure to diversify, leading to 4% growth and 28% marg...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is generally strong, but the lack of significant insider ownership and the aggressive net selling of $144.5 million by executive...
Recent Activity
2026-03-10Analyst Target
+8.31%Firm: Jefferies Analyst: Akash Tewari Price Target: $580.00 Price When Posted: $496.50 Implied Upside: +16.8%
2026-02-13SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.69%Vertex reported Q4 and full year 2025 financial results with 9% annual revenue growth to $12.0 billion and provided 2026 guidance.
2025-12-03Analyst Target
+6.92%Firm: Morgan Stanley Analyst: Terence Flynn Price Target: $516.00 Price When Posted: $433.15 Implied Upside: +19.1%
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-20.60%Vertex reported Q2 2025 financial results with 12% revenue growth to $2.96 billion and reiterated full year 2025 guidance.
2025-05-06SEC Filing (8-K)
-10.03%Vertex reports Q1 2025 financial results with 3% revenue growth and raised guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade