VST
Vistra Corp.$173.89
Unclear
Target $186.36
Report: Mar 07, 2026Utilities • Independent Power Producers • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$173.89+7.2%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$143.35
(18% below current)
Fair Value
$186.36
(7% above current)
Stop Loss
$139.11
(20% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Transitional
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$219.82
52 Week Low$90.51
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.48M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin48.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin29.6%
LTM EBIT Margin13.0%
LTM Operating Margin10.7%
LTM ROA1.9%
LTM ROE15.1%
LTM ROIC5.5%
LTM ROCE7.9%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$50.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$70.3B
Shares Outstanding338.56M
Total Debt (MM)$20.51B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$822.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$19.69B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.7x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth3.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR8.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR84.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$230.56
LTM EV/Revenue4.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit8.1x
LTM EV/EBIT30.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA13.4x
LTM P/E67.4x
LTM EV/FCF49.0x
LTM P/FCF35.3x
LTM P/TB1.4x
LTM P/B9.9x
Dividend Yield0.6%
Payout Ratio40.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $173.89 versus fair value $186.36 (7.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on PJM Capacity Auction Results: Record-high capacity prices ($329/MW-day) are expected to provide a significant EBITDA windfall for Vistra's PJM-heavy fleet in 2026. Bear case centers on Cycle and Balance Sheet Risk: A 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn in wholesale power prices could impair Vistra's ability to service its $20.5 billion debt load. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Vistra is a primary beneficiary of the AI-driven energy boom, with 20-year nuclear PPAs with Meta and Amazon providing high-visibility, premium cash flows. The 'PJM windfall' from record-high capacity prices ($329/MW-day) is expected to drive a significant EBITDA inflection in 2026.
Bear Case
High leverage (4.1x Net Debt/EBITDA) and a deteriorating cash-conversion ratio (172% vs 365% prior year) create financial fragility. Incremental ROIC of -88.4% suggests that recent multi-billion dollar acquisitions are destroying shareholder value at the top of the cycle.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
PJM Capacity Auction Results: Record-high capacity prices ($329/MW-day) are expected to provide a significant EBITDA windfall for Vistra's P...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Closing of the Cogentrix Acquisition: The addition of 5,500 MW of modern gas capacity is expected to be mid-single-digit FCF accretive by 20...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Vistra is at a critical juncture following its upgrade to investment grade (BBB-) by S&P in December 2025 and the announcement of landmark n...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Cycle and Balance Sheet Risk: A 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn in wholesale power prices could impair Vistra's ability to service its...
Concern: Medium
Regulatory and Price Cap Risk: Proposals in the PJM region to cap electricity prices could structurally hinder the profitability of independ...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board has overseen a successful strategic pivot, the lack of 'skin in the game' (insiders hold o...
Recent Activity
2026-01-09SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.47%Excerpt: UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D. C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): January 9,...
2025-12-17SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.77%Excerpt: UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D. C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): December 17,...
2025-07-23SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.83%Excerpt: UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D. C. 20549 FORM 8-K CURRENT REPORT Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported): July 22,...
2025-05-13SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+6.10%Beneficial ownership update (SC 13G/A).
2025-04-04Analyst Target
-9.37%Firm: Goldman Sachs Price Target: $134.00 Price When Posted: $98.07 Implied Upside: +36.6%
Valuation Table
9.7/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$115
Bear
$186
Base
$350
Bull
$174