WAT
Waters Corporation$315.59
Hold
Target $398.68
Report: Mar 07, 2026Healthcare • Medical - Diagnostics & Research • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$315.59+26.3%
Rec: HoldConviction: High
Entry Target
$306.68
(3% below current)
Fair Value
$398.68
(26% above current)
Stop Loss
$275.05
(13% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$414.15
52 Week Low$275.05
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.08M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin59.3%
LTM EBITDA Margin32.6%
LTM EBIT Margin26.0%
LTM Operating Margin25.4%
LTM ROA13.4%
LTM ROE28.5%
LTM ROIC28.8%
LTM ROCE22.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$29.2B
Enterprise Value (MM)$30.1B
Shares Outstanding59.51M
Total Debt (MM)$1.49B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$587.83M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$903.25M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth7.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR2.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR0.4%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-2.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$401.00
LTM EV/Revenue9.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit16.1x
LTM EV/EBIT36.5x
LTM EV/EBITDA29.2x
LTM P/E45.5x
LTM EV/FCF55.5x
LTM P/FCF53.8x
LTM P/TB9.2x
LTM P/B11.4x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $315.59 versus fair value $398.68 (26.3% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of $55M in cost synergies from the BD Biosciences integration. Bear case centers on Geopolitical and competitive disruption in China. Conclusion: Recommendation is Hold with Half sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Waters possesses a wide switching-cost moat with recurring revenue now exceeding 50% of sales, providing high visibility. Secular tailwinds from GLP-1 testing (which doubled in FY2025) and PFAS monitoring (up 40%) provide idiosyncratic growth independent of the macro cycle.
Bear Case
Significant exposure to China (18% of revenue) remains a volatility vector due to geopolitical tensions and local competition. Margin recovery may be delayed if the $105M in projected BD synergies fail to materialize or if ERP implementation costs exceed the $130M budget.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Realization of $55M in cost synergies from the BD Biosciences integration. This will directly address market concerns regarding the 250 basi...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Acceleration of Empower software subscription revenue. As the 18-month breakeven period for early adopters passes, the high-margin nature of...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Waters is relevant for analysis now because it has just completed its largest acquisition in history and is trading at a significant discoun...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Geopolitical and competitive disruption in China. As China accounts for 18% of revenue, a shift toward domestic instrument manufacturers or...
Concern: Low
Integration failure of the BD Biosciences combination. If the complex divisional reorganization leads to talent attrition or customer disrup...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is strong, anchored by an exceptional board. Chairman Flemming Ornskov is a premier strategic scaler who previously...
Recent Activity
2025-11-04SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.29%Waters Corporation reports Q3 2025 financial results with strong growth and raises full-year guidance
2025-04-09Market Movement
+9.36%Market/Sector Move +9.36%
2025-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.77%Waters Corporation reports Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 financial results with strong growth
2024-11-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+19.84%Waters Corporation reports Q3 2024 sales of $740 million, up 4% YoY with broad-based growth
2023-08-02SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.33%Waters Corporation reports Q2 2023 financial results with 4% sales growth and updates full-year guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$340
Bear
$479
Base
$570
Bull
$316