WDAY
Workday, Inc.$151.04
Unclear
Target $139.24
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Software - Application • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$151.04-7.8%
Rec: UnclearConviction: Medium
Entry Target
$107.11
(29% below current)
Fair Value
$139.24
(8% below current)
Stop Loss
$117.76
(22% below current)
Position Size
Starter
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$276.00
52 Week Low$117.76
Avg. 3 Month Volume5.04M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin75.7%
LTM EBITDA Margin15.4%
LTM EBIT Margin10.6%
LTM Operating Margin7.5%
LTM ROA3.9%
LTM ROE8.0%
LTM ROIC10.1%
LTM ROCE8.1%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$33.4B
Enterprise Value (MM)$35.7B
Shares Outstanding261.23M
Total Debt (MM)$3.82B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.50B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.32B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.6x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth13.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR15.4%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR95.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$197.90
LTM EV/Revenue3.7x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.9x
LTM EV/EBIT35.4x
LTM EV/EBITDA24.3x
LTM P/E48.2x
LTM EV/FCF12.9x
LTM P/FCF12.0x
LTM P/TB2.7x
LTM P/B4.3x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $151.04 versus fair value $139.24 (-7.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Successful rollout of 12+ AI agents and Flex Credits, addressing market concerns on AI monetization by driving 50% larger expansions and Q2 FY2027 sequential growth of 5%. Bear case centers on AI commoditization from low-cost competitors like Anthropic erodes pricing power, compressing margins from 75.6% and ROIC from 8.2%. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
97% gross revenue retention and 75.6% margins demonstrate moat durability; AI in 50% of expansions drove 50% larger deals; $2.585B TTM FCF funds $2.9B FY2026 buybacks yielding 6.9% net yield.
Bear Case
Revenue growth slowed to 13.2% TTM from 18% 3Y average; GAAP margins stuck at 6.7% despite growth due to 17.6% SBC; insiders sold $379M with zero buys over 12 months.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Successful rollout of 12+ AI agents and Flex Credits, addressing market concerns on AI monetization by driving 50% larger expansions and Q2...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Workday's core value stems from its entrenched position in enterprise HCM and finance, where 97% retention and 75.6% margins underpin predic...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent CEO return to Bhusri and FY2026 results with 14% subscription growth make now pivotal for validating AI pivot amid 22% stock underper...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
AI commoditization from low-cost competitors like Anthropic erodes pricing power, compressing margins from 75.6% and ROIC from 8.2%.
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion caps growth at 9.5% Year 1 and 5% margins Year 5 from AI disruption; floor $67.19.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is adequate with proven founder leadership and activist endorsement (Elliott $2B stake supports strategy), but weak alignment fr...
Recent Activity
2026-02-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.69%Excerpt: | UNITED STATES | | SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION | Washington, D. C. 20549 FORM 8-K | CURRENT REPORT | Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 Date of Report (date of earliest event reported):...
2026-02-03Analyst Target
-7.04%Firm: Piper Sandler Analyst: Billy Fitzsimmons Price Target: $200.00 Price When Posted: $173.38 Implied Upside: +15.4%
2025-11-26SEC Filing (8-K)
-7.85%Workday reports fiscal 2026 Q3 results with 12.6% revenue growth
2025-09-17SEC Filing (8-K)
+7.25%Excerpt: (EX-99.1) Document Exhibit 99.1 Workday Signs Definitive Agreement to Acquire Sana Acquisition to Turn Workday into the New Front Door for Work Acquisition Will Combine Sana’s AI-Powered Search, Agents, and Learning With Workday...
2025-05-23SEC Filing (8-K)
-12.52%Workday reports Q1 FY2026 financial results with 12.6% revenue growth and announces $1 billion share repurchase program
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$67
Bear
$804
Base
$143
Bull
$151