WMT
Walmart Inc.$125.12
Sell
Target $63.54
Report: Mar 13, 2026Consumer Defensive • Specialty Retail • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$125.12-49.2%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$63.54
(49% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$134.69
52 Week Low$79.81
Avg. 3 Month Volume30.67M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin24.9%
LTM EBITDA Margin6.5%
LTM EBIT Margin4.5%
LTM Operating Margin4.2%
LTM ROA7.9%
LTM ROE23.7%
LTM ROIC16.2%
LTM ROCE19.0%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$990.8B
Enterprise Value (MM)$1,047.2B
Shares Outstanding7.97B
Total Debt (MM)$67.09B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$10.73B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$56.37B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth4.7%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR5.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR14.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR24.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$137.04
LTM EV/Revenue1.5x
LTM EV/Gross Profit5.9x
LTM EV/EBIT32.8x
LTM EV/EBITDA22.7x
LTM P/E45.3x
LTM EV/FCF69.7x
LTM P/FCF65.9x
LTM P/TB3.9x
LTM P/B9.9x
Dividend Yield0.8%
Payout Ratio34.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $125.12 versus fair value $63.54 (-49.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Slowing Advertising and eCommerce Growth: As these high-margin segments reach scale, their growth rates will naturally decelerate, removing the primary justification for the current valuation premium. Bear case centers on Valuation Inertia: The stock may continue to trade at a premium if the market remains in a 'defensive' mode and ignores fundamental valuation metrics. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The bull case rests on the 'retail-as-tech' transformation, where advertising (growing 37% YoY) and membership fees (growing 16% YoY) structurally expand operating margins from 4.3% toward 5.0%+. Proponents argue that AI-driven 'agentic commerce' through Sparky will drive permanent market share gains and higher customer lifetime value.
Bear Case
The bear case centers on a massive valuation disconnect, where a 43.0x P/E multiple is being paid for a business with 4.3% revenue growth and stagnant 3% EBITDA growth. Critics argue that the high-margin digital businesses are too small to justify the current $984 billion market cap and that the company is vulnerable to a sharp re-rating as defensive sectors lose favor.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Slowing Advertising and eCommerce Growth: As these high-margin segments reach scale, their growth rates will naturally decelerate, removing...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: Moderate
Continued Insider Selling: Persistent liquidation by the Walton family and other executives will create a massive supply of shares and signa...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Walmart is relevant for analysis now because it is trading at a record valuation peak (43.0x P/E) just as it undergoes a major CEO transitio...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Valuation Inertia: The stock may continue to trade at a premium if the market remains in a 'defensive' mode and ignores fundamental valuatio...
Concern: High
Moat Erosion from Low-Cost Competitors: Aggressive expansion by Temu and other direct-from-China platforms could permanently impair Walmart'...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board is highly independent and features deep financial expertise (e.g., Timothy Flynn, former K...
Recent Activity
2025-11-20SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.46%Walmart reports strong Q3 FY26 results with 5.8% revenue growth and raises FY26 outlook.
2025-04-09Market Movement
+9.55%Market/Sector Move +9.55%
2025-02-20SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.53%Walmart reports strong Q4 FY25 results with 4.1% revenue growth and raises FY26 guidance.
2024-08-15SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.58%Walmart reports strong Q2 FY25 results with 4.8% revenue growth and raises full-year guidance
2024-05-16SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.99%Walmart reports strong Q1 FY25 results with 6.0% revenue growth and raises full-year guidance
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$49
Bear
$66
Base
$84
Bull
$125