WSM
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.$183.93
Sell
Target $160.37
Report: Mar 13, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Specialty Retail • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$183.93-12.8%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$160.37
(13% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$222.00
52 Week Low$130.07
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.19M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin46.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin24.3%
LTM EBIT Margin18.1%
LTM Operating Margin18.1%
LTM ROA20.6%
LTM ROE51.5%
LTM ROIC37.1%
LTM ROCE41.2%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$21.7B
Enterprise Value (MM)$22.1B
Shares Outstanding119.12M
Total Debt (MM)$1.46B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.02B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$437.10M
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.2x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth1.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-3.5%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-0.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR2.5%
Valuation
Street Target Price$204.00
LTM EV/Revenue2.8x
LTM EV/Gross Profit6.1x
LTM EV/EBIT15.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.7x
LTM P/E19.9x
LTM EV/FCF21.0x
LTM P/FCF20.6x
LTM P/TB4.1x
LTM P/B10.4x
Dividend Yield1.4%
Payout Ratio29.4%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $183.93 versus fair value $160.37 (-12.8% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of Tariff Impacts in H1 2026 Earnings. Bear case centers on Moat Erosion from Geopolitical and Competitive Pressures. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
The B2B segment represents a 'coiled spring' opportunity, targeting a $2 billion market with double-digit contract growth. Additionally, AI-driven personalization and the proprietary AR platform could continue to drive e-commerce share gains and SG&A leverage.
Bear Case
Operating margins are at a cyclical peak and face a 170-basis-point headwind from tariffs. Revenue growth is stagnant (-0.5% YoY), and the stock's 20x P/E multiple is unsustainable without a meaningful recovery in the housing market.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of Tariff Impacts in H1 2026 Earnings. As the weighted average cost of inventory reflects new tariff rates, the 170-basis-point...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Housing Market Stagnation Data. Continued high mortgage rates and low housing turnover will likely lead to a deceleration in comparable bran...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Williams-Sonoma is at a critical juncture where its record 18.5% operating margins are being tested by structural geopolitical costs, and it...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Moat Erosion from Geopolitical and Competitive Pressures. Persistent tariffs on China-sourced goods (which impacted margins by 170 bps in Q4...
Concern: Medium
Execution Risk in Retail Expansion. Management's plan to open 20 new stores and reposition 18 others (the most in a decade) during a weak ho...
Concern: Medium
The stewardship verdict is mixed. While the board is highly qualified-featuring leaders like Andrew Campion (ex-Nike CFO) and Scott Dahnke (...
Recent Activity
2024-11-20SEC Filing (8-K)
+27.54%Williams-Sonoma reports Q3 2024 results with -2.9% comparable brand revenue and raises full-year outlook
2024-08-23Analyst Target
+6.90%Firm: RBC Capital Analyst: Scot Ciccarelli Price Target: $147.00 Price When Posted: $136.53 Implied Upside: +7.7%
2024-08-22SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.28%Williams-Sonoma reports Q2 2024 results with -3.3% comparable brand revenue and revises 2024 outlook
2024-08-01SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.30%Williams-Sonoma appoints Arianna Huffington to Board of Directors
2024-06-14SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.14%Williams-Sonoma announces two-for-one stock split to increase accessibility
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$119
Bear
$173
Base
$2
Bull
$184