WTW
Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company$302.94
Unclear
Target $300.22
Report: Mar 07, 2026Financial Services • Insurance - Brokers • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$302.94-0.9%
Rec: UnclearConviction: High
Entry Target
$230.94
(24% below current)
Fair Value
$300.22
(1% below current)
Stop Loss
$184.75
(39% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$352.79
52 Week Low$275.60
Avg. 3 Month Volume765K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin100.0%
LTM EBITDA Margin27.8%
LTM EBIT Margin22.5%
LTM Operating Margin23.0%
LTM ROA5.7%
LTM ROE20.1%
LTM ROIC25.1%
LTM ROCE14.7%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$27.5B
Enterprise Value (MM)$31.3B
Shares Outstanding94.55M
Total Debt (MM)$6.90B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$3.13B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$3.77B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA1.4x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-2.2%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR3.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR8.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR21.9%
Valuation
Street Target Price$371.33
LTM EV/Revenue3.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit3.2x
LTM EV/EBIT14.3x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.6x
LTM P/E17.1x
LTM EV/FCF20.2x
LTM P/FCF17.8x
LTM P/TB1.4x
LTM P/B3.4x
Dividend Yield1.3%
Payout Ratio22.5%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $302.94 versus fair value $300.22 (-0.9% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Newfront integration yields mid-single-digit R&B growth, validating specialization and addressing market growth concerns; Cushion/Flowstone add $300M revenue in HWC retirement. Bear case centers on Moat erosion from Aon/Marsh scale capturing global accounts, impairing pricing power and ROIC via share loss. Conclusion: Recommendation is Unclear; maintain no position until reliability and catalyst evidence improve.
Bull Case
Superior ROIC 25.1% vs peers sustains compounding; $1.55B FCF funds $1B+ buybacks; specialization drives 5-7% organic growth with WE DO locking 23% margins long-term.
Bear Case
Revenue -2.2% TTM from divestitures signals demand weakness; margins rely on one-off $1.8B expense cuts with SG&A at 57.9%; lags Aon growth 9.4%.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Newfront integration yields mid-single-digit R&B growth, validating specialization and addressing market growth concerns; Cushion/Flowstone...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Willis Towers Watson's moat expansion via specialization delivers 5% organic growth and 23.0% margins post-$473M WE DO savings exceeding $30...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Recent Q4 2025 earnings beat (+5.84% stock move) with 6% organic growth and $1.65B FY buybacks underscores relevance amid bearish technicals...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion from Aon/Marsh scale capturing global accounts, impairing pricing power and ROIC via share loss.
Concern: Medium
3% growth, 17% margins from peer erosion; $234 floor from DCF scenario.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship strong: 9/10 independent board with insurance CEOs (Beale, Reilly); prohibits hedging/pledging; ownership guidelines CEO 6x sala...
Recent Activity
2026-02-03SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.84%WTW reports Q4 and full year 2025 earnings with margin expansion and revenue growth
2025-04-24SEC Filing (8-K)
-5.72%Willis Towers Watson reports Q1 2025 earnings with revenue decline
2024-02-06SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+7.18%BlackRock reports 9.99% ownership stake in Willis Towers Watson
2023-10-26SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.27%WTW reported Q3 2023 earnings with revenue of $2.17 billion, up 11% YoY, and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24, up 2% YoY.
2023-07-27SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.88%WTW reports Q2 2023 earnings with 6% revenue growth and updates 2024 outlook
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$234
Bear
$2315
Base
$365
Bull
$303