WY
Weyerhaeuser Company$24.63
Sell
Target $17.93
Report: Mar 08, 2026Real Estate • REIT - Specialty • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$24.63-27.2%
Rec: SellConviction: High
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$17.93
(27% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$29.59
52 Week Low$21.16
Avg. 3 Month Volume6.84M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin14.6%
LTM EBITDA Margin15.1%
LTM EBIT Margin7.7%
LTM Operating Margin10.6%
LTM ROA2.0%
LTM ROE3.4%
LTM ROIC2.6%
LTM ROCE3.5%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$17.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$22.7B
Shares Outstanding721.27M
Total Debt (MM)$5.57B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$464.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$5.11B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA4.9x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-3.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-12.1%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-30.1%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-44.2%
Valuation
Street Target Price$30.20
LTM EV/Revenue3.3x
LTM EV/Gross Profit22.5x
LTM EV/EBIT42.6x
LTM EV/EBITDA21.8x
LTM P/E54.3x
LTM EV/FCF946.4x
LTM P/FCF733.6x
LTM P/TB1.1x
LTM P/B1.9x
Dividend Yield3.4%
Payout Ratio190.9%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $24.63 versus fair value $17.93 (-27.2% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Refinancing of $1 billion in debt maturing in 2026. Bear case centers on A 'lower-for-longer' housing downturn that keeps single-family starts below 1 million units, preventing a recovery in high-margin Wood Products EBITDA. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
A supply-driven price recovery triggered by 35% U.S. tariffs on Canadian lumber and the scaling of Natural Climate Solutions to $250 million EBITDA by 2030.
Bear Case
Eroding cost advantages, a 44% collapse in operating cash flow to $562 million, and a 4.9x net debt/EBITDA ratio that threatens the dividend and refinancing capacity.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Refinancing of $1 billion in debt maturing in 2026. This will likely occur at significantly higher rates than the maturing 7.35%-7.85% deben...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: High
Weyerhaeuser is a broken cyclical operator whose modest cost edge is being neutralized by falling commodity prices and rising leverage. The...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Weyerhaeuser is relevant now because the recent S&P outlook revision to Negative and the CEO's large share sale in December 2025 signal that...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
A 'lower-for-longer' housing downturn that keeps single-family starts below 1 million units, preventing a recovery in high-margin Wood Produ...
Concern: Medium
The bear case fair value is $9.46, representing the severe operational decline DCF. While the Net Liquidation Value (NLV) provides a 'Fire S...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently under pressure due to the Maneman v. Weyerhaeuser pension litigation. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Stat...
Recent Activity
2023-11-14Market Movement
+6.03%Market/Sector Move +6.03%
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$22
Bear
$9
Base
$19
Bull
$25
