WYNN
Wynn Resorts, Limited$105.37
Buy
Target $160.64
Report: Mar 08, 2026Consumer Cyclical • Gambling, Resorts & Casinos • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$105.37+52.5%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$105.37
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$160.64
(52% above current)
Stop Loss
$80.00
(24% below current)
Position Size
Half
Time Horizon
Strategic
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$134.72
52 Week Low$65.25
Avg. 3 Month Volume1.68M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin41.4%
LTM EBITDA Margin23.5%
LTM EBIT Margin14.8%
LTM Operating Margin15.7%
LTM ROA2.6%
LTM ROE-90.4%
LTM ROIC5.0%
LTM ROCE9.6%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.6B
Enterprise Value (MM)$21.2B
Shares Outstanding102.92M
Total Debt (MM)$12.18B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$1.56B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$10.62B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA6.3x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth0.1%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR23.9%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR21.8%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGRN/A
Valuation
Street Target Price$143.90
LTM EV/Revenue3.0x
LTM EV/Gross Profit7.2x
LTM EV/EBIT20.0x
LTM EV/EBITDA12.6x
LTM P/E32.4x
LTM EV/FCF30.7x
LTM P/FCF15.3x
LTM P/TB0.8x
LTM P/B-38.4x
Dividend Yield1.2%
Payout Ratio39.6%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $105.37 versus fair value $160.64 (52.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on UAE Al Marjan Island Milestones As the project reaches the 70th floor and begins room sales in late 2026, the market will begin to price in the 2027 cash flow inflection. Bear case centers on Balance Sheet and Cycle Risk A 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn could impair the company's ability to service its $10.6B net debt, especially if interest coverage (currently 1.69x) falls below 1.0x. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Half sizing and Strategic horizon.
Bull Case
The UAE Al Marjan project provides a first-mover monopoly in a projected $3B-$5B GGR market; Macau mass market volumes are up 15-18%, replacing low-margin VIP revenue; Insiders have purchased $28.5M in stock at a significant discount to fair value.
Bear Case
Net leverage of 6.1x and $10.6B in net debt leaves little room for operational error; Gross margins have compressed 210 basis points to 41.4% due to rising input costs; Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could delay or impair the UAE project's terminal value.
Key Catalysts
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
UAE Al Marjan Island Milestones As the project reaches the 70th floor and begins room sales in late 2026, the market will begin to price in...
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Macau Mass Market Inflection Continued shift from VIP to Mass gaming will drive margin expansion as mass drop (up 18% TTM) carries significa...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Wynn is currently trading at a 35% discount to recent analyst price targets and a 52% discount to our internal fair value, despite massive i...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Balance Sheet and Cycle Risk A 'lower-for-longer' cyclical downturn could impair the company's ability to service its $10.6B net debt, espec...
Concern: High
Geopolitical and Regulatory Risk Escalating Middle East tensions or changes in Macau's gaming policy could delay the UAE project or impair M...
Concern: Medium
Governance is a core strength, led by industry legend Philip Satre. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests: 1. Status Quo: Billings executes t...
Recent Activity
2026-02-13Analyst Target
+5.14%Firm: Deutsche Bank Price Target: $144.00 Price When Posted: $112.30 Implied Upside: +28.2%
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
-6.63%Wynn Resorts reports Q4 2025 results with $1.87B revenue and $100M net income
2025-02-14SEC Filing (8-K)
+10.38%Wynn Resorts reports Q4 2024 results with flat revenues and $277M net income
2024-11-14SEC Filing (SC 13G/A)
+8.65%Fertitta family group reports 16.3% ownership in Wynn Resorts
2024-11-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-9.34%Wynn Resorts reports Q3 2024 results with $1.69B revenue and $32.1M net loss
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$115
Bear
$209
Base
$268
Bull
$105