XOM
Exxon Mobil Corporation$151.58
Sell
Target $115.69
Report: Mar 13, 2026Energy • Oil & Gas Integrated • Cyclical OperatorSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$151.58-23.7%
Rec: SellConviction: Medium
Entry Target
N/A
N/A
Fair Value
$115.69
(24% below current)
Stop Loss
N/A
N/A
Position Size
None
Time Horizon
N/A
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$176.41
52 Week Low$97.80
Avg. 3 Month Volume22.14M
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin24.2%
LTM EBITDA Margin20.1%
LTM EBIT Margin12.3%
LTM Operating Margin12.6%
LTM ROA6.4%
LTM ROE11.0%
LTM ROIC10.1%
LTM ROCE10.8%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$706.9B
Enterprise Value (MM)$739.8B
Shares Outstanding4.17B
Total Debt (MM)$43.54B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$10.68B
LTM Net Debt (MM)$32.86B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA0.5x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth-5.0%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-7.0%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR-12.7%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-20.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$146.77
LTM EV/Revenue2.2x
LTM EV/Gross Profit9.2x
LTM EV/EBIT18.1x
LTM EV/EBITDA11.1x
LTM P/E24.5x
LTM EV/FCF31.3x
LTM P/FCF29.9x
LTM P/TB1.6x
LTM P/B2.7x
Dividend Yield2.4%
Payout Ratio60.3%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $151.58 versus fair value $115.69 (-23.7% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Golden Pass LNG First Cargo The startup of Golden Pass LNG in March 2026 is a critical milestone for the 10-key-project slate. Bear case centers on Commodity Price Normalization A sustained decline in realized crude prices would impair the Upstream segment's earnings, which currently drive the majority of the company's $52B in operating cash flow. Conclusion: Recommendation is Sell with no position, pending a materially better risk/reward setup.
Bull Case
Exxon's low $35/bbl breakeven in Guyana and the Permian provides a massive margin of safety against commodity price crashes. The $15B structural cost-saving program is expected to drive ROIC toward 12% as the 10-key-project slate, including Golden Pass LNG, ramps up in 2026.
Bear Case
Revenue is already contracting (-5.0% YoY) despite record production, indicating that volume growth cannot outrun price normalization. Insider selling at $131 suggests that those closest to the business view the current $151.58 price as unsustainable.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Golden Pass LNG First Cargo The startup of Golden Pass LNG in March 2026 is a critical milestone for the 10-key-project slate. Failure to de...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Moderate
Mozambique LNG Final Investment Decision (FID) A late 2026 FID on the Mozambique project would signal the next phase of long-cycle capital c...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Exxon Mobil is at a critical juncture as it integrates the $60B Pioneer acquisition while facing its first significant revenue contraction (...
Primary Risks
Concern: High
Commodity Price Normalization A sustained decline in realized crude prices would impair the Upstream segment's earnings, which currently dri...
Concern: Medium
Guyana Territorial Dispute The ongoing dispute with Venezuela over the Essequibo region threatens the company's primary growth assets.
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is currently contested. The Governance Outcome Tree suggests three paths: 1. Status Quo: Management continues aggressive buyback...
Recent Activity
2025-04-04Market Movement
-7.20%Market/Sector Move -7.20%
2022-06-18SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.22%ExxonMobil provides detailed segment earnings and identified items recasting for historical periods
2022-02-01SEC Filing (8-K)
+6.41%ExxonMobil announces major business restructuring to streamline operations and enhance value creation
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$61
Bear
$15
Base
$156
Bull
$152