ZBRA
Zebra Technologies Corporation$223.92
Buy
Target $307.86
Report: Mar 07, 2026Technology • Communication Equipment • Mature CompounderSnapshot
Decision-first overview with recommendation, valuation anchor, and current setup.
Company Overview
Research Snapshot
Price History
Pelican View
Current$223.92+37.5%
Rec: BuyConviction: High
Entry Target
$223.92
(0% above current)
Fair Value
$307.86
(37% above current)
Stop Loss
$194.59
(13% below current)
Position Size
Full
Time Horizon
Long-Term
Key Metrics
Live Snapshot
Market Data
52 Week High$352.66
52 Week Low$199.05
Avg. 3 Month Volume763K
Efficiency
LTM Gross Margin48.1%
LTM EBITDA Margin15.8%
LTM EBIT Margin12.4%
LTM Operating Margin13.0%
LTM ROA5.2%
LTM ROE11.5%
LTM ROIC19.1%
LTM ROCE10.4%
Capital Structure
Market Cap (MM)$10.3B
Enterprise Value (MM)$12.8B
Shares Outstanding49.19M
Total Debt (MM)$2.66B
Cash & Equivalents (MM)$125.00M
LTM Net Debt (MM)$2.53B
LTM Net Debt/EBITDA3.0x
Growth
TTM Rev. Growth8.3%
Last 3-Yr Rev. CAGR-2.3%
Last 3-Yr EBITDA CAGR4.2%
Last 3-Yr EPS CAGR-2.4%
Valuation
Street Target Price$319.75
LTM EV/Revenue2.4x
LTM EV/Gross Profit4.9x
LTM EV/EBIT19.2x
LTM EV/EBITDA15.0x
LTM P/E24.5x
LTM EV/FCF15.4x
LTM P/FCF12.4x
LTM P/TB3.5x
LTM P/B2.9x
Dividend Yield0.0%
Payout Ratio0.0%
Executive SummarySituation: Current price is $223.92 versus fair value $307.86 (37.5% expected return), and valuation confidence is stable. Debate: Bull case depends on Realization of $120M in annualized savings from the robotics business exit and productivity plan. Bear case centers on Moat erosion due to aggressive pricing and technological disruption from competitors like Honeywell. Conclusion: Recommendation is Buy with Full sizing and Long-Term horizon.
Bull Case
Zebra's expansion into Machine Vision and Fixed Industrial Scanning (FIS) positions it as a full-stack automation provider, capturing high-margin revenue from the re-shoring of manufacturing. Aggressive share repurchases, including a new $1B authorization, will drive significant EPS accretion as the company utilizes its $831M annual free cash flow.
Bear Case
Normalization of demand following the pandemic-era e-commerce surge could lead to persistent inventory destocking. Rising competition from lower-cost Asian manufacturers and Honeywell's aggressive pricing in handheld scanners may threaten Zebra's premium margins.
Key Catalysts
Near-Term (0-6 months)Impact: High
Realization of $120M in annualized savings from the robotics business exit and productivity plan. This directly addresses market concerns re...
Mid-Term (6-18 months)Impact: Critical
Scaling of the Frontline AI Suite and RFID deployments in manufacturing and healthcare. Successful monetization of these high-margin softwar...
Long-Term (18+ months)Impact: Moderate
Zebra is relevant now because it has just completed a major strategic pivot (robotics exit/Elo acquisition) and is trading at a rare discoun...
Primary Risks
Concern: Medium
Moat erosion due to aggressive pricing and technological disruption from competitors like Honeywell. This would permanently impair Zebra's p...
Concern: Low
Persistent memory-related tariff pressure. Management expects a 2-point gross margin headwind from memory component price increases starting...
Concern: Medium
Stewardship is strong, supported by a highly independent board with deep financial and M&A expertise. While a proxy fight does not currently...
Recent Activity
2026-02-12SEC Filing (8-K)
+8.57%Zebra Technologies reported Q4 2025 results with 10.6% net sales growth to $1.475B and $70M net income.
2025-10-28SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.68%Zebra Technologies reports Q3 2025 results with net sales of $1.320 billion, up 5.2% year-over-year, and net income of $101 million.
2025-08-05SEC Filing (8-K)
-11.35%Zebra Technologies reports Q2 2025 results with 6.2% sales growth and raises full-year guidance
2025-04-29SEC Filing (8-K)
+5.16%Zebra Technologies reports Q1 2025 results with 11.3% sales growth and raises full-year guidance
2025-02-13SEC Filing (8-K)
-8.36%Zebra Technologies reported Q4 2024 results with 32.2% net sales growth to $1.334B and $163M net income.
Valuation Table
9.8/10Decision Grade
Scenario Range
$252
Bear
$334
Base
$410
Bull
$224