Pelican researches companies using AI across five analytical frameworks, depending on the company's archetype: Mature Compounder, Early-Stage Hypergrowth, Turnaround Candidate, Cyclical Operator, and Asset-Based Operator.
We start by gathering data across the business, for example:
- Business Model: Revenue model, segments, products/services, risks.
- Industry: Competition, tailwinds/headwinds, TAM, market share.
- Moat: Competitive advantages.
- Management Team: Capital allocation skill, track record, incentives, governance.
- Sentiment & Flow: Narrative credibility, sell-side conviction, institutional flow.
- And more: Customer and employee reviews, plus additional inputs.
We analyze this data through an archetype-specific lens, then triangulate valuation across multiple methods:
- DCF
- Peer Multiple
- Historical Multiple
- Net Liquidation Value
- Analyst Price Targets
Weightings vary based on archetype and business context. Qualitative analysis influences valuation. For example, the DCF factors in business model strength, transcripts, analyst targets, historicals, and competition. If the moat is shrinking, the terminal multiple may be lower. If management frequently misses guidance, we may haircut projections.
Historical multiples are normalized for the current cycle and earnings power. For example, upstream oil producers can trade at ~2x EBITDA in weak commodity cycles; that anchor may be inappropriate during structurally stronger pricing regimes.
Finally, we publish a recommendation: Buy, Sell, Hold, or Unclear.